The MLCC cycle is expected to be reversed. The platform Development Company of PVD process empowering Company is the domestic leader of nickel powder for MLCC & the maker of industry standards, and the PVD preparation process is the world's leading. Since 2017, MLCC has experienced two price cycles. After more than one year of inventory adjustment, the current MLCC inventory adjustment is coming to an end, MLCC prices have stabilized and rebounded, shipments have gradually increased, releasing the signal that the industry has hit bottom, and a new business cycle inflection point is gradually established. With the recovery of the consumer electronics market and the strong development of the automotive electronics market, the industry boom is expected to hit bottom and boost demand for high-end nickel powder. The company ploughs the PVD path, takes the PVD core technology as the carrier to support the company's new product research and development, and the downstream application field is constantly broadening. the second growth pole of new energy powder materials will provide considerable impetus for the company's follow-up development.
There is an urgent need to reduce the cost and improve efficiency of HJT batteries. Silver-coated copper powder is expected to accelerate the delivery of more than 3 tons of silver-coated copper powder in the second quarter, and is expected to be further improved in the second half of the year. At present, the annual production capacity of silver-coated copper powder is 300000 tons, and the equipment of the new production line is under commissioning. HJT battery has the advantages of high conversion efficiency, few working procedures, large space for cost reduction, in line with the trend of technology iteration, and has the potential for industrialization and broad market space. High cost is the main factor restricting the industrialization of HJT batteries, and silver-coated copper is the key driving force for cost reduction in non-silicon links. Photovoltaic silver paste industry chain coordinated layout of silver-coated copper paste instead of low-temperature silver paste, helping to accelerate the release of silver-coated copper powder, the replacement space is broad. It is estimated that the global demand for silver-coated copper paste is expected to reach 479.6 tons in 2025, corresponding to a market space of 1.68 billion yuan.
When the layout of silicon-carbon negative electrode is right, the nano-silicon powder is ready to go out.
The company uses PVD method to produce nano-silicon powder and cooperates closely with scientific research institutes with the advantage of platform. The pilot production line of nano-silicon powder is expected to be completed and trial production will be carried out by the end of the year. With the advantages of high specific capacity, silicon-based negative electrode is expected to become the next generation of high energy density lithium-ion battery anode material, which has been first used in Tesla 4680 battery. Nano-silicon powder is the key material to improve the performance of silicon-based negative electrode, and the main anode material enterprises are actively distributed. It is expected that with the continuous improvement of the permeability of large cylindrical batteries and silicon-based negative electrode, the market space of nano-silicon powder is expected to continue to grow. It is estimated that the global market demand for nano-silicon powder is expected to reach 24000 tons in 2025, corresponding to a market space of 16.72 billion yuan.
Profit forecast and investment suggestion
As a domestic leading enterprise of nickel powder for MLCC, the company has significant advantages in core technology and customers, and a new business cycle inflection point in the main downstream MLCC industry is gradually established, the demand for high-end nickel powder is expected to improve month-on-month in the second half of the year, and the shipment volume of new products wallet copper powder is also expected to further increase. We estimate that the return net profit of the company from 2023 to 2025 is 344 million yuan respectively (taking into account the periodic pressure of the MLCC industry and the beginning of the release of the company's silver-clad copper powder, the profit forecast shows that the pre-2023 PE is 330pm 418 million yuan respectively), the corresponding EPS is 0.40 pound 1.02x1.32 yuan per share, corresponding to the current PE is 82pm 3225x, given 2024 PE 40x. Corresponding to the target stock price of 40.7 yuan per share, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hints: downstream market demand is lower than expected risk; raw material price fluctuation risk; business risk that may be caused by high customer concentration; project expansion is less than expected risk; new product expansion is less than expected risk; measurement is subjective.