The company publishes its semi-annual report for 2023:
In 2023, the operating income of H1 company was 180 million yuan, down 22.6% from the same period last year, and the net profit of returning home was 38 million yuan, down 32.4% from the same period last year. Of this total, the operating income of Q2 company in 2023 was 101 million yuan, a decrease of 21.7% over the same period last year and an increase of 27% compared with the same period last year; the net profit returned to its mother was 22 million yuan, down 25.9% from the same period last year and an increase of 31.4% from the previous year.
The overall income is dragged down by the decrease of the unit price of atomized alloy powder, and the profitability of carbonyl iron powder is higher.
Revenue declined in the first half of the year: the shipping structure of atomized alloy powder products changed, from high-end cobalt-chromium series powder to iron-based series powder with lower unit price, and the unit price of the product decreased by 85% compared with the same period last year. As a result, although the sales volume of the products increased by 47% compared with the same period last year, the sales revenue of this part of the products still decreased by 78%, or 73 million yuan.
Increase in gross profit margin or relative increase in the proportion of revenue from carbonyl iron powder (the gross profit margin of carbonyl iron powder was 46.72% in 22 years): when the gross profit rate of atomized alloy powder decreased by 13pct year on year, the overall gross profit margin in the first half of the year was 37.32%, an increase of 3.04pct over the same period last year and an increase of 3.19pct over 2022.
The new line of cost reduction of carbonyl iron powder is expected to shape the second growth curve.
The company plans to invest in the construction of the "100000 tons of metal soft magnetic micro-nano powder project" in Ningxia, and the cheap version of carbonyl iron powder products corresponding to the new production capacity in Ningxia base is similar to the performance of the standard products. the price is expected to drop from 40,000 yuan / ton to 20,000 yuan / ton in Dayu base, mainly serving the mid-and downstream application market, which is sensitive to price. After the project reaches full production, it is expected to achieve an annual sales income of 3.423 billion yuan and a net profit of about 593 million yuan.
The basic production capacity is ready to start, and the annual performance may be guaranteed. The "annual production capacity of 6000 tons of carbonyl iron powder and other series of products expansion project" and "high-performance ultra-fine metal and alloy powder expansion project" are scheduled to be put into production in September 2023, which may further strengthen the company's leading position in the segment industry.
Attach importance to R & D investment, is expected to continue to expand product application scenarios. In 2023, H1 invested 9.644 million yuan in R & D, accounting for 5.37% of revenue, increasing 0.73pct compared with the same period last year. In the first half of the year, the company's independent research and development achievements include high-performance stainless steel binder system, preparation technology of high-voltage and high-impedance Fe-Si-Cr soft magnetic powder, new high-frequency and low-power Fe-Si composite preparation technology, "one-step" advanced lithium extraction technology, etc. it is expected to broaden the application scene of the product.
Investment advice:
It is estimated that the operating income from 2023 to 2025 is 4.13,6.22,975 million yuan respectively, and the estimated net profit is 0.97,1.51 and 254 million yuan, respectively, and the corresponding EPS is 1.13,1.76,2.97 yuan per share, respectively. At present, the stock price corresponds to PE 37.3,24,14.2 times. Due to the adjustment of product structure, the annual revenue of atomized alloy powder declined in the first half of the year, but taking into account the performance increment brought about by the production of the new line in the future, the "overweight-A" rating was maintained, with a target price of 62.0 yuan per share for six months.
Risk hint: the progress of the new line of cost reduction is not as expected, the promotion of new products is not as expected, the demand is not as expected, and the progress of the project is not as expected.