Performance is under pressure, there are relatively abundant available resources in the future, and the "buy" rating is maintained.
Qixia Construction released the 2023 interim report, the company's settlement performance is dragged down by the concentration of low-margin projects, and there are relatively abundant marketable resources in the future. The company ploughs the Jiangsu market, the current round of industry supply-side reform benefits obviously, the follow-up land, sales scale is expected to continue to improve. We maintain the profit forecast and expect the net profit from 2023 to 2025 to be 3.5,4.0 and 420 million yuan, respectively, and the EPS is 0.34,0.38,0.40 yuan respectively. The current stock price corresponds to the PE valuation of 9.9,8.6,8.3 times, maintaining the "buy" rating.
The gross profit of the carry-over project is on the low side, and the net profit is under pressure compared with the same period last year.
The company achieved revenue of 3.14 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 32.5% over the same period last year. The net profit of the company was 27 million yuan, down 87.1% from the same period last year. The profit level was under pressure year on year, mainly due to: (1) the carry-over projects were mainly carried over from Nanjing Qilianfu and Wuxi Tianya Garden, with a low gross profit margin (gross profit 2022H1VO28.8% 2023H1VOU 11.8%). (2) the sales rate will be increased by 0.9 percentage points to 2.0%.
Sales increased in the first half of the year compared with the same period last year, and five projects started smoothly.
In the first half of the year, the company completed the contract sales area of commercial housing rights and interests of 5400 square meters, down 11.2% from the same period last year, and the contract sales amount of rights and interests was 2.041 billion yuan, an increase of 6.2% over the same period last year. After March, the market continued to be in the doldrums, the company adjusted its marketing strategy, increased concessions, expanded sales channels, and promoted the elimination of stock projects and the sale of new projects.
The company's projects on sale are mainly three major projects: Yanshangfu, Mid-levels and Fengqingfu, with a capacity of about 260000 square meters. In the first half of the year, the company successfully started five projects, Xingyeyun Huifu completed the main body acceptance, and Nanjing Qili Fu basically completed delivery. the completed area is 129800 square meters. The company has no new real estate reserves in the first half of the year, and the undeveloped project is only the Wuxi Qiyuan Hotel project, with a planned capacity of 45,000 square meters.
The money on hand is relatively abundant, and it is proposed to issue 1.5 billion yuan of corporate bonds.
By the end of the first half of the year, the company's total leased property area was 92,600 square meters, and the rental property income in the first half of the year was 31.0165 million yuan, an increase of 23.4% over the same period last year. Qixia property, a subsidiary, achieved an operating income of 145 million yuan. By the end of the first half of the year, the company had 3.47 billion yuan in cash on hand, an increase of 86% over the beginning of the year, and the asset-liability ratio was 81.8%. The company announced in June that it intends to issue no more than 1.5 billion yuan of corporate bonds to repay the issued bonds, which will be fully guaranteed by the parent company.
Risk hint: the company's sales are not as expected, and the Nanjing market recovery is not as expected.