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有研粉材(688456):金属粉体材料领先企业 增材制造业务或勾勒第二成长曲线

Polished powders (688456): Leading companies in metal powder materials additive manufacturing business may outline a second growth curve

安信證券 ·  Sep 6, 2023 00:00

The leading enterprises of powder materials under the central enterprises, high-quality development of a variety of materials, research powder materials have been formed with copper-based metal powder materials, tin-based electronic interconnection materials, metal powder materials for augmentation manufacturing as the core, and gradually promote the global industrial layout represented by functional materials such as slurries and catalysts, which are distributed in Beijing, Anhui, Chongqing, Shandong, Britain, Thailand and other places. The company is a domestic leading enterprise in the field of copper-based metal powder materials and tin-based welding powder materials, and has become one of the leading international manufacturers of advanced non-ferrous metal powder materials. it has strong market competitiveness in the domestic and foreign non-ferrous metal powder materials market.

The company's performance in 2022 is mainly contributed by copper-based and tin-based powder materials, and the contribution of adding materials to manufacturing powder may be increased. In the future, with the gradual release of research and production capacity, the contribution of 3D printing powder materials to the company's performance may be effectively improved.

Copper and tin-based metal powder materials are widely used, and the company's technical strength leads the application field of √. According to Zhiyan, in 2020, Chinese copper-based metal powder is mainly used in powder metallurgy parts, superhard tools, electrical materials (such as carbon brushes, etc.) and friction materials, accounting for 43%, 28%, 11% and 9% respectively. In addition, according to the ITA,2021 year, according to the end market, the proportion of tin solder used in consumer electronics, communications, computers and automotive electronics is 26%, 24%, 19% and 16%, respectively.

√ is the champion of copper-based powder, tin-based material or extended to electronic paste. The company is an advanced copper-based metal powder material enterprise in China, and its main competitors are Kymera Group of the United States, GGP of Germany, Pometon of Italy, Ural Mining and Metallurgical Company, Fukuda of Japan and other large international group companies.

√ tin-based plate is committed to downstream development, in April 23, the company established a wholly-owned electronic paste subsidiary to develop tin-based electronic paste, while expanding some other powder electronic paste, such as silver powder, silver-coated copper and other paste, to expand the overall scale of tin-based plate.

Research and increase the volume step by step, and the contribution of 3D printing performance can be expected.

Adding material manufacturing is widely used, which has the advantages of high efficiency and low cost compared with traditional manufacturing, and is an effective supplement to traditional manufacturing.

√ process end: there are many process routes, SLM is the current mainstream process of metal printing. At the same time, the localization of the core components of wood-increasing manufacturing has high certainty, which may be good for the competitiveness of the domestic manufacturing industry chain.

√ demand side: aerospace, medical / dental, automotive and other fields account for the highest proportion in the global terminal application of 3D printing in 2021, which are 16.8%, 15.6% and 14.6%, respectively. According to the annual AMPOWER,2022 3D printing market value of 9.53 billion euros, the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) is expected to be 17.7% by 2027. Among them, the value of the metal augmentation manufacturing market is 3.03 billion euros in 2022, and the compound annual growth rate is expected to be 26.1% by 2027.

√ material end: the raw materials made by adding materials include metal and non-metal materials, metal materials account for a relatively high proportion in China, and have a high value in the 3D printing industry chain. According to the China Business Information Network, in 2021, titanium alloy, aluminum alloy and stainless steel accounted for 20.2%, 10.0% and 9.1% respectively, accounting for 39.3% of the total. In addition, the technical barrier of 3D printing metal powder is high, and the traditional electrolysis and mechanical crushing methods are difficult to apply. Atomization processes such as plasma rotating electrode (PREP) and plasma torch atomization (PA) are the main preparation methods of metal powder.

√ 3D printing powder production capacity is sufficient, the customer advantage is obvious. The company has a production capacity of 500 tons per year to increase the production capacity of metal powder materials. The main customers include Aerospace 159 Plant, Aerospace 239 Plant, Shenfei end-users, Steel Research Gaoner, etc., with a continuous customer base.

Investment advice:

It is estimated that the operating income from 2023 to 2025 is 28.23,34.94 and 4.239 billion yuan respectively, and the estimated net profit is 0.81,1.11 and 145 million yuan, respectively, and the corresponding EPS is 0.78,1.07,1.4 yuan per share respectively. At present, the stock price corresponds to PE 39.8,29.1,22.3 times. For the first time, the company was given a "buy-A" rating, with a 6-month target price of 47.04yuan per share, corresponding to a 23-year PE of 60 times.

Risk hints: business risk caused by raw material price fluctuation, risk of international trade friction, deterioration of competition pattern of 3D printing powder materials, lower-than-expected risk of new production capacity, sluggish demand in downstream market, lower-than-expected risk of calculation hypothesis.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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