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科笛-B(02487.HK)首次覆盖报告:研发驱动 商业化导向 泛皮肤病市场新贵

Kodi B (02487.HK) First Coverage Report: R&D Drives Commercialization Orients Pan-Dermatology Market Upstart

中信證券 ·  Sep 6, 2023 18:32

The company is familiar with the pan-wide dermatology treatment and care market, builds product power based on strong R&D, builds brand power and service with commercialization as a guide, covers all aspects of To B+ToC, and continuously lays out differentiated high-quality products that meet market needs, and is expected to grow into an industry-leading dermatology platform company. Currently, the company is still in the early stages of growth. In the future, with the gradual implementation of product pipelines, effective marketing and promotion, large-scale effects are unleashed, and revenue levels and profitability are expected to continue to rise.

A dermatology platform company that is familiar with the general dermatology treatment and care market and provides a full range of solutions. The company lays out four major fields: hair disease and care, skin disease and care, localized fat accumulation management drugs, and epidermal anesthesia. It is committed to meeting the ever-changing and diverse needs of different consumers/patients in the pan-skin disease treatment and care market by providing comprehensive professional solutions. Currently, the company has 9 products under development (2 of which have been commercialized on a trial basis in Lecheng, Hainan), 2 commercialized exclusive cross-border products, and 5 new products under its own brand Qingsi Geometry. At 2023H1, the company achieved revenue of 34.34 million yuan, +5,119% year-on-year; during the 618 period of the same year, the company achieved a total online payment amount of 9.4 million +, +4,348% year-on-year, mainly due to the company's exclusive agent product CUP-MNDE (Minoxidil Spray/French White Tube) contributing to increased performance. After the Hong Kong stock IPO was issued, the controlling shareholders Tong and Yucheng entities held 49.82% of the shares, and the top four institutional investors collectively held 81.74% of the shares.

It covers four major business areas, focuses on customer needs, and creates differentiated products.

1) Hair treatment and care: multi-pipeline, omni-channel layout. The company has built a matrix of 11 products in the hair field (4 products under research, 2 exclusive distribution, 5 blue silk geometric brand products), including innovative products that have been proven abroad and are low risk; innovative products with its own formulation; and 1 class of new pharmaceutical products with innovative mechanisms to meet the needs of consumers at different levels. To B established an academic position through CU-40102 (finasteride for topical use), and To C used blue wire geometry to build traffic entry and brand power; 2) Skin treatment and care: covering core diseases and differentiated product layout on multiple tracks. There are 3 products for multiple symptoms of acne, psoriasis, and atopic dermatitis; among them, according to the company's prospectus, CU-10201 is the only approved topical minocycline for acne vulgaris in the world and the only clinical development stage in China. Compared with similar products, it has the advantages of low systemic drug exposure, low side effects, low drug resistance, and weak skin irritation;

3) Localized fat accumulation management: The demand in the empty market is high, and the differentiation advantages of CU-20401 are obvious. Frost & Sullivan estimates (quoted from the company's prospectus) that the market size of localized fat accumulation management drugs in mainland China 2023E-2025E CAGR +143.6%. No products have been approved in mainland China yet, and 6 products are in pre-clinical research or clinical trials. CU-20401 is a new national class 1 drug. It has obtained consecutive clinical approvals for phase I-III, and covers both double chin and abdominal indications. It has an innovative mechanism, is different from deoxycholic acid products, and acts differentially on the extracellular matrix of adipose tissue, and is expected to become a safer, more effective, and less painful fat accumulation management drug product;

4) Epidermal anesthesia: products are scarce, and CU-30101 is long-lasting and convenient to fill market demand. The market for epidermal anesthetic products in China has maintained steady growth. According to Frost & Sullivan data (quoted from the company's prospectus), it is expected that 2021-2025E CAGR will be +15.3%. Currently, only two lidocaine/propylaminocaine products have been approved.

CU-30101 is expected to become a mainstream numbing product because of its core ingredient, which has a longer anesthetic effect and is more convenient to operate.

Core advantages: Strong R&D as the foundation, excellent commercialization capabilities, and building core competitiveness. 1) Self-developed CATAME technology platform to establish hard barriers to dosage form development and efficient drug delivery technology. Relying on the CATAME technology platform, the company develops unique formulations and differentiated and most suitable innovative dosage forms according to customer market needs to achieve specific, efficient and successful drug administration. The company has many of its own know-how in ingredient formulation design, dosage form development, and efficient transdermal administration, etc., making its products superior in efficacy and quality to rivals in the industry, and is expected to develop strong competitiveness in the industry. 2) Business logic dominates, full value chain product development framework. Unlike many traditional pharmaceutical companies with linear management of innovative projects, the company is commercialization-oriented, based on consumer pain points, unmet needs, and empty markets. Multiple teams such as commercialization, R&D, and production work collaboratively to launch differentiated, high-quality products that meet market needs. At the same time, the company has built an online and offline dual-channel marketing strategy and distribution network, and promoted efficiently to enhance brand awareness and awareness.

Risk factors: the risk that residents' willingness to buy consumer health care such as hair will decline; increased market competition, or may face risks such as market share being squeezed out and gross margin falling; risk of new product development or falling short of expectations; risk of product commercialization and brand strength falling short of expectations; risk of changes in regulatory policies exceeding expectations; risk of medical accidents.

Profit prediction, valuation and rating: The company is familiar with the general dermatology treatment and care market, builds product power based on strong R&D, commercialization guides to build brand power and service, fully covers B+ToC, and continuously lays out differentiated high-quality products that meet market needs, and is expected to grow into an industry-leading dermatology platform company. Currently, the company is still in the early stages of growth. In the future, with the gradual implementation of product pipelines, effective marketing and promotion, large-scale effects are unleashed, and revenue levels and profitability are expected to continue to rise. We forecast that the company's revenue for 2023-2025 will be 81 million yuan/206 million yuan/438 million yuan, a year-on-year increase of 616.4%/153.2%/112.5%; estimated net attributable profit of -1,850 million yuan/-328 million yuan/-241 million yuan, respectively; and predicted core net profit of -395 million yuan/-328 million yuan/-241 million yuan, respectively.

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