Investment-driven growth and steady buyback
The company's operating income in the first half of 2023 was 3.327 billion yuan, + 29.39% compared with the same period last year; the net profit returned to the mother was 874 million yuan, + 61.08% compared with the same period last year; weighted ROE2.77% (under-year), revenue in a single quarter of 23Q2 was 1.37 billion yuan,-13.5% compared with the same period last year; and the net profit at home was 277 million yuan,-33.8% from the same period last year, and-53.6% from the previous year. Overall, the company's performance growth in the first half of the year is mainly due to a sharp rebound in investment business income, while brokerage and credit business income declined slightly. Taking into account the current market environment, we appropriately reduce the company's investment income and other assumptions, the company's EPS is expected to be 0.46,0.51,0.55 yuan in 2023-2025 (0.52,0.58,0.61 yuan before 2023-2025), and 8.76 yuan in 2023. Comparable company in 2023 Wind consensus forecast PB average of 1.12 times, considering the company's outstanding performance growth, steadily promote buyback, give the company 1.3x PB in 2023, the target price of 11.39 yuan (the previous value of 10.58 yuan), maintain the "overweight" rating.
The elasticity of investment income is remarkable, and the brokerage business is declining compared with the same period last year.
The net income of 23H1 investment business was 978 million yuan, + 720.78% compared with the same period last year, driving significant growth. In terms of fixed income business, broaden financing channels, refine debt management, improve transaction flexibility and achieve better investment returns; in equity business, the company adheres to a sound investment style and significantly improves investment efficiency by optimizing trading strategies; there are 21 alternative investment projects, derivatives business continues to optimize, to achieve risk hedging. The net income of 23H1's brokerage business was 812 million yuan,-1% of the same period last year. Revenue from consignment sales of financial products fell slightly by 7.6% to 93.36 million yuan, completing the issuance of settlement funds and private equity products by many brokerages, such as the "emerging value of National Gold", and realizing the transformation to the buyer's patronage mode by creating the "National Gold 50" and so on.
The characteristics of investment banks are remarkable, and they drop slightly under the influence of the market.
Investment behavior company advantage business, 23H1 affected by the market showed a slight decline. 23H1 investment banking business income of 550 million yuan,-18% compared with the same period last year; the company strengthens project management, enhances underwriting capacity, provides comprehensive services, and leads other business development. 1) Equity: 23H1 is responsible for 8 IPO projects and 2 non-public stock projects, with a total main underwriting amount of 3.572 billion yuan; 2) Bonds: the main underwriting amount of all kinds of bonds is 46.223 billion yuan, ranking 22nd. Among them, the amount of underwriting corporate bonds is 43.133 billion yuan, ranking 13th in the market.
Credit and asset management have been adjusted, and buyback has been steadily promoted.
The company's 23H1 interest net income is 630 million yuan,-5.28% compared with the same period last year. The balance of 23H1 is 21.618 billion yuan, + 15.92% compared with the same period last year, and the market share is + 0.19pct to 1.32%. The pledged balance of stocks in the table is 8.715 billion yuan, an increase from the beginning of the year. The net income of 23H1's asset management business was 47 million yuan,-29.79% of the same period last year.
23H1 year-end asset management AUM1452 billion yuan, year-on-year-19%. Structurally, the scale of collection, orientation and special project is 1035 yuan, 232 yuan and 18.5 billion yuan respectively. The company steadily promotes the buyback and intends to use 150-300 million yuan of its own funds to buy back shares for employee shareholding or equity incentives to promote long-term development.
Risk tips: business development is not as expected, market volatility risk.