受宏观经济恢复提振较慢、国际原油市场大幅波动、石化行业下游需求不足、汇率变化等多重因素叠加的影响，主要经营指标同比大幅下降。2023H1 国内柴油、沥青、聚丙烯及尿素均价为7344 元/吨、3676 元/吨、7510 元/吨、2491 元/吨，分别同比-7.38%、-3.46%、-13.48%、-12.88%，相应炼化价差也受到挤压。公司优化装置管控，全力保供降本，采取灵活的销售策略，Q2 实现环比减亏。国内第三批成品油出口配额发放共计1200 万吨，环比上涨33%，同比上涨140%，中国兵器今年已获得38 万吨成品油出口配额。出口配额落地恰逢传统旺季，国内成品油市场有望上行，公司下半年盈利情况继续修复。Huajin shares released its mid-2023 report: operating income in the first half of 2023 was 21.758 billion yuan, down 9.93% from the same period last year; its mother lost 675 million yuan in net profit. 2023Q2 realized revenue of 11.784 billion yuan in a single quarter, a decrease of 12.48 percent over the same period last year, and a net profit loss of 178 million yuan, compared with 217 million yuan in the same period last year, reducing the loss by 320 million yuan compared with the same period last year.
Main points of investment
The demand is insufficient, the performance is under pressure, improving energy, increasing efficiency and Q2 to reduce losses.
Affected by the slow macroeconomic recovery, sharp fluctuations in the international crude oil market, insufficient demand in the downstream of the petrochemical industry, exchange rate changes and other factors, the main operating indicators fell sharply compared with the same period last year. 2023H1 domestic average prices of diesel, asphalt, polypropylene and urea are 7344 yuan / ton, 3676 yuan / ton, 7510 yuan / ton, 2491 yuan / ton, respectively-7.38%,-3.46%,-13.48%,-12.88%, respectively, the corresponding refining and chemical price differences are also squeezed. The company optimizes device management and control, makes every effort to protect supply and reduce cost, adopts flexible sales strategy, and Q2 achieves month-on-month loss reduction. The third batch of domestic export quotas for oil products totaled 12 million tons, up 33 percent from the previous month and 140 percent over the same period last year. Chinese weapons have received an export quota of 380000 tons of oil products this year. The arrival of export quotas coincides with the traditional peak season, the domestic oil product market is expected to rise, and the company's profitability in the second half of the year continues to repair.
The pattern of refining and chemical industry has been continuously optimized, and the prosperity of the long period has been improved.
The primary processing capacity of domestic crude oil will be controlled at 1 billion tons in 2025, and China's oil products and refining by-products will face the supply ceiling. Under the background of economic repair demand growth, production capacity is limited in advance, oil refining products are expected to end the long-term surplus pattern, backward production capacity is gradually eliminated under the background of increasingly stringent crude oil quotas and tax inspection, and continue to benefit stock capacity. the value of high-quality refining and chemical assets is expected to be revalued. At the same time, the company benefits from the upward movement of the urea price center under the background of food security, thickening the profit space.
Working with Saudi Aramco, the group's refining and chemical project is moving forward steadily.
After the commissioning of the Huajin Ami project, Huajin Group will have a total annual refining capacity of 23 million tons. According to the guidelines that SASAC's world-class model enterprises should make use of the listing platform and give full play to the resource allocation function of the capital market, Huajin shares said that it would timely participate in the fine chemical and raw material engineering projects jointly invested by Huajin Group and Saudi Aramco. As the only petrochemical listing platform of the Arms Group, Huajin shares will fully benefit from the coordinated development of large-scale refining and chemical projects of the parent company.
Profit forecast
Large fluctuations in raw material prices and lack of downstream demand have led to a decline in the company's profitability, so we have lowered our profit forecast for 2023-2025. It is predicted that the income of the company from 2023 to 2025 is 451.54 yuan, 453.97 yuan and 61.075 billion yuan respectively, and the EPS is 0.08,0.36,0.46 yuan respectively, and the current stock price corresponding to PE is 77.5,17.3,13.3 times respectively. Based on the continuous optimization of the refining and chemical structure and the steady progress of the group project, the "buy" investment rating is maintained.
Risk hint
The risk of a sharp fall in crude oil prices; economic downside risk; product price volatility risk; project construction risk is lower than expected; participation group project coordination is not as expected.
