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王力安防(605268):工程订单开始放量 生产端规模效应逐步显现 经营质量改善

Wang Li Security (605268): Project orders begin to expand, production side scale effects gradually show improvement in business quality

廣發證券 ·  Sep 5, 2023 20:32

The company released the 23 mid-year report. 23H1 realized revenue of 1.121 billion yuan, year-on-year + 12.71%, net profit of 48.78 million yuan, compared with-12.6 million yuan in the same period last year. Of this total, 23Q2 earned 726 million yuan in single quarter, + 13.33% year-on-year, and net profit of 33.37 million yuan, compared with-5.77 million yuan in the same period last year. In the first half and second quarter, it significantly reversed losses, and the quality of operation began to improve.

The production capacity of wooden doors was gradually released, and the collection of customer orders began to release. According to the split category, the revenue of 23H1 steel safety door / other doors / intelligent lock camp is RMB 250.07 million, which is-3% of the same period last year. The other categories have achieved substantial growth. After Changtian and Sichuan bases were put into production, the production capacity and output of wooden doors have increased significantly. From the perspective of split channel, the revenue of 23H1 C end / small B / Big B / e-commerce is RMB 3.0max 480.2 million, compared with the same period last year, which is + 7%, 7%, 10%, 23%, and the base of e-commerce channel is low, and the growth of direct sales is faster than that of distribution. It is mainly due to the increased development of B-end customers, such as real estate, and the collection of customer orders and shipping 22Q4. We expect that Big B will have greater growth in the second half of the year.

The gross profit margin has increased significantly, the scale advantage of the production side has gradually emerged, and the dilution rate of income growth has been diluted.

23H1 gross profit margin of 26.56%, year-on-year + 5.01pct, greatly increased first, the price of cold-rolled coil of main raw materials decreased compared with the same period last year; second, the new base was more intelligent, reducing labor, logistics, warehousing and other production costs; third, with the gradual expansion of project orders in the first half of the year, the scale increased, capacity utilization increased, and the impact of depreciation in the new plant decreased. During the 23H1 period, the expense rate is 18.69%, year-on-year-1.10pct, in which the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate is respectively year-on-year-0.84/-0.34/-0.66/+0.75pct. The decrease in expense rate is mainly due to revenue growth.

23H1 operating cash flow of 140 million yuan, the same period last year-230 million yuan, a decrease in receivables.

Profit forecast and investment advice. We estimate that the 23-24 year return net profit is 2.0,17.2 yuan respectively, corresponding to the former PE 24.4,17.2 times, maintaining the company's judgment of 20 times PE in 24 years, corresponding to the reasonable value of 12.89 yuan per share, and maintaining the "buy" rating.

Risk hint. The recovery of real estate demand is not as expected, the fluctuation of raw material prices is higher than expected, and the production capacity is not as expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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