可孚医疗(301087):业绩增长韧性足 看好全年稳健增长

Kefu Healthcare (301087): Performance growth is resilient enough to be optimistic about steady growth throughout the year

上海證券 ·  09/05

Overview of events

On August 29, 2023, the company reported that revenue in the first half of 2023 was 1.519 billion yuan, an increase of 17.23% over the same period last year; net profit of 199 million yuan, an increase of 52.73% over the same period last year; and net profit of 171 million yuan, an increase of 90.98% over the same period last year. In a single quarter, Q2 achieved revenue of 664 million yuan in 2023, down 4.51% from the same period last year; net profit from home was 64 million yuan, down 19.54% from the same period last year; and net profit from non-return was 46 million yuan, up 11.51% from the same period last year.

Analysis and judgment

Revenue in the first half of the year was sound, while Q2 declined slightly due to the high base of epidemic prevention materials. H1 company achieved steady revenue growth in 2023, according to the business sector, among them: 1) health monitoring plate, revenue 361 million yuan (+ 8.80%), we expect to be uric acid series and other products growth; 2) rehabilitation accessories plate revenue 348 million yuan (+ 22.54%), we expect to benefit from the rapid growth of hearing business and the release of demand for rehabilitation products. 3) the medical and care sector achieved revenue of 416 million yuan (- 6.67%), which we expect to be due to the decline in demand for epidemic prevention products such as masks and gloves; 4) the respiratory support plate achieved revenue of 268 million yuan (+ 146.81%). We expect to benefit from the continuous release of multiple models of oxygen machines and nasal care products after they are put on the market. Looking at 23Q2 in a single quarter, the company's revenue fell by 4.51% to 664 million yuan. We believe that due to the decline in sales of epidemic prevention products, there is a large demand for epidemic prevention materials in the same period of 22 years, resulting in a high performance base.

Category structure optimization superimposed capacity release, profitability gradually improved. In 2023, the gross profit margin of the company's main business sectors increased to varying degrees, of which the gross profit margin of medical care increased by 11.06pcts to 56.32%. We expect that due to the rapid growth of a series of products such as dressing, adult care and pocket making, and the increase of gross profit margin of rehabilitation accessories to 45.91%, we expect to benefit from the increase in hearing aids. In addition, with the full commissioning and capacity release of the company's two new production bases in Changsha and Xiangyin, we believe that the increase in self-production rate will lead to an improvement in product gross profit margin. As a result, the company's overall gross profit margin increased by 7.49pct to 46.06% over the same period last year, while the net profit margin increased by 2.96pct to 13.15%.

Accelerate the expansion of listening business and make a profit. As of the first half of 23 years, the company has added 121 hearing matching centers, and the total number of stores has reached 553. The chain network has covered 12 provincial markets and 109 prefecture-level cities. At the same time, the company improved the training system for fitters and improved its comprehensive service capacity. In the first half of 23 years, the company realized business income of 96.9276 million yuan, an increase of 68.54% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 2.2795 million yuan, turning losses into profits over the same period last year.

Adhere to the underlying innovation, rich R & D pipelines and gradually enter the harvest period. The company attaches great importance to R & D, constantly improves the construction of R & D team, sets up a number of research institutes, and actively carries out industry-university-research cooperation with universities, hospitals and other scientific research institutions to jointly cultivate and incubate cutting-edge medical device projects. the company has been approved to set up a national postdoctoral research workstation and Changsha expert workstation, which is expected to speed up the transformation of scientific research achievements and promote the high-quality development of the enterprise. In the first half of 2023, the company launched a number of best-selling products on the market, including blood glucose and blood pressure integrated machine, blood glucose uric acid integrated machine, collagen repair patch, silicone gel, single-level ventilator, two-level ventilator products, etc., thickening the company's performance.

Investment suggestion

Maintain a "buy" rating. The second half of the year is the traditional peak season for the company's sales, the superimposed profitability continues to repair, and is optimistic about steady growth for the whole year. We estimate that the company's net profit from 2023 to 2025 will be 4.87,6.14 and 749 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 61.5%, 26.1% and 21.9%, corresponding to EPS of 2.34,2.95 and 3.59 yuan respectively, and the current stock price corresponding to Pamp E is 16.35,12.97,10.64 times. The company is the leader of domestic life cycle health management, with a wide range of products, and is expected to achieve the rapid development of multi-plate business. in addition, the company vigorously develops the listening business and has a broad space for growth.

Risk hint

Core technology leakage risk, new product research and development risk, management risk caused by business scale expansion, intellectual property risk and so on.

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