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欣贺股份(003016)点评:二季度销售恢复增长 经营质量逐步改善

Happy Co., Ltd. (003016) Review: Sales resumed growth in the second quarter and business quality gradually improved

申萬宏源研究 ·  Sep 5, 2023 07:32

The company released the 2023 mid-year report, the performance is in line with expectations. 1) the income in the first half of the year was flat, and the net profit of returning home decreased slightly. In the first half of the year, the company's revenue rose 0.02% year-on-year to 900 million yuan (data from the public data disclosed in the company's report, the same below), the net profit of returning to the mother fell 3.4% to 95.75 million yuan, and the net profit of non-return increased 1.3% to 89.61 million yuan compared with the same period last year. 2) double-digit income growth in the second quarter and higher profit elasticity. 23Q2's revenue rose 13.5 per cent year-on-year to 450 million yuan, net profit increased by 26.5 per cent to 46.79 million yuan, and non-return net profit rose 39 per cent to 44.77 million yuan.

Direct marketing and e-commerce are stable as a whole, and the results of distribution store adjustment are obvious. 1) the overall performance of the direct channel is stable. In the first half of the year, revenue from direct stores rose 0.4 per cent year-on-year to 610 million yuan, accounting for 68 per cent of revenue, slightly higher 0.2pct and gross profit margin rose 0.6pct to 77.3 per cent. In the first half of the year, the number of self-operated stores increased by 15 compared with the end of 22, with an average area of 179square meters, and the average store efficiency was 1.434 million yuan, down 3.9% from the same period last year. 2) the performance of the distribution stores is eye-catching, and the profitability is obviously improved. 23H1 franchise revenue increased 18% year-on-year to 47.21 million yuan, the proportion of revenue increased 0.8pct to 5.3% year-on-year, gross profit margin increased 19.4pct to 69.3% year-on-year, in the first half of the year, a net increase of 9 stores, the average area of 129m2. 3) the e-commerce channel has declined slightly. In the first half of the year, e-commerce channel revenue fell 2% year-on-year to 230 million yuan, accounting for 25% of revenue, gross profit margin fell 0.1pct to 55.5% year-on-year, the overall performance is relatively stable.

The financial indicators are improving as a whole, and the asset quality is sound. 1) profitability remains stable. 23H1 gross profit margin increased by 1.2pct to 71.1% year-on-year, sales expense rate slightly increased to 44.6% year-on-year, and management expense rate (including R & D) increased by 0.7pct to 8.8% year-on-year. Among them, 23Q2 single-quarter sales expense rate increased to 45.8% year-on-year, management expenses (including R & D) rate decreased 0.4pct to 8.8% year-on-year, and the final net profit rate slightly decreased to 10.7%. 2) the inventory has improved obviously and the cash flow is sufficient. In the first half of the year, inventory decreased by 1.02% to 700 million yuan compared with the end of 22, and the net operating cash flow increased by 51.9% to 200 million yuan compared with the same period in 22 years, mainly due to the payment of taxes deferred after examination and approval in 2021 in 22 years. Accounts receivable decreased by 1% to 160 million yuan compared with the same period last year. The asset-liability ratio is 20.3%, and the asset quality remains sound.

Determine the shareholder dividend plan to give back to shareholders, flexibly adjust the assessment target of equity incentives, and fully stimulate the enthusiasm of employees. The company plans to give back to the majority of shareholders by accumulating cash dividends of not less than 30% of the profits that can be distributed in each of the last three years from 2023 to 2025.

At the same time, the equity incentive target issued in 2021 is flexibly adjusted according to the changes of the market environment. In 21 years, the company awarded 5.002 million restricted stocks to 42 incentive targets with a price of 4.46 yuan per share. The assessment target is that the net profit for 21-23 years is not less than 2.8 million yuan, 3.6 billion yuan, and the 21-year target has been achieved. 22 years has not been achieved by the epidemic, and it is difficult to complete it in 23 years. Combined with the current market environment, the company adjusts 23 years to a net profit of no less than 287 million yuan. If the actual amount is not less than 230 million yuan, the exercisable right is 50%, and if not less than 260 million yuan, the exercisable right is 80%, which is conducive to fully arousing the enthusiasm of employees.

The company ploughs deep into the field of middle and high-end women's wear, and has a significant synergy advantage of multi-brand matrix. at the same time, it has a complete production supply chain and an intelligent warehousing and logistics system, along with the warming of the retail environment and the stable development of offline and e-commerce channels. multi-channel is expected to continue to grow. However, in the short term, considering that the current retail environment is still in a weak recovery, we slightly downgrade the company's profit forecast. It is estimated that the 23-25 net profit of homing will be 2.4pm 2.9pm 390m (originally 2.9pm 3.4pm 390m), corresponding to PE, which is twice that of 18-15-13, maintaining the "overweight" rating.

Risk tips: offline recovery is not as expected; over-reliance on core brands; multi-brand operational challenges; core staff turnover.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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