毛利率下滑、所得税及费用率提升拖累业绩表现。2023H 公司营收143.1 亿元（-4.6%），其中开发物业结算收入104.9 亿元（-14.0%），占比73.3%，投资物业相关收入27.0 亿元（+34.7%），占比18.9%，收入下降主因开发业务结算资源下降。归母业绩降幅远超营收降幅，主要由于综合毛利率同比下降7.4pct 至26.5%，其中开发业务毛利率同比大降15.4pct 至16.2%，自持业务毛利率同比提升13.0pct 至62.9%；期间费用率、所得税率同比提升2.0pct、10.5pct 至16.3%、59.8%一定程度上拖累归母业绩表现，即使投资净收益扭亏至3.0 亿元、税金及附加率同比下降3.3pct 至2.5%也难以抵销毛利率下滑及税费率提升对业绩的不利影响。截至2023H 公司账上预收款308.3 亿元（-19.4%），预收款/年化结算收入=0.97X，预收款相对充裕保障后期结算收入，对营收维持稳健的展望。Description of the event
On August 29, the company announced that in 2023, it achieved operating income of 14.31 billion yuan (-4.6%), net profit of 50.75 million yuan (-40.9%), net profit of non-return net profit of 21.78 million yuan (-57.4%), and a comprehensive gross profit margin of 26.5% (-7.4 pct).
Incident comments
A decline in gross margin and an increase in income tax and expense ratios have dragged down performance. By 2023H, the company's revenue was 14.31 billion yuan (-4.6%), of which development property settlement revenue was 10.49 billion yuan (-14.0%), accounting for 73.3%, and income related to investment properties was 2.7 billion yuan (+34.7%), accounting for 18.9%. The decline in revenue was mainly due to a decline in settlement resources for development business. The decline in return performance far exceeded the decline in revenue, mainly due to a year-on-year decline in comprehensive gross margin of 7.4 pct to 26.5%. Among them, gross margin of development business fell 15.4 pct to 16.2% year on year, and gross margin of self-owned business increased 13.0 pct to 62.9% year on year; cost rate and income tax rate increased 2.0 pct year on year, 10.5 pct to 16.3%, and 59.8% dragged down Gimou's performance to a certain extent. Even though net investment income turned a loss of 300 million yuan, taxes and surcharges fell 3.3 pct to 2.5% year on year It is difficult to offset the negative impact of falling gross margins and higher tax rates on performance. As of 2023H, advance receipts in the company's accounts were 30.83 billion yuan (-19.4%), advance receipts/annualized settlement revenue = 0.97X. Advance receipts were relatively sufficient to protect later settlement revenue, and maintained a steady outlook on revenue.
Investment is prudent, and land reserves are sufficient to guarantee sales. After a phased recovery in the first half of 2023, the market entered a period of adjustment. The company had sales of 256 billion yuan (-10.2%), sales area of 1.23 million square meters (+16.0%), and an average sales price of 20,813 yuan/square meter (-22.6%).
From a land acquisition perspective, 2023H obtained 2 projects in Nanjing and Xi'an respectively (7 in the same period last year), with a land acquisition amount of 1.94 billion yuan (-74.7%), a land acquisition area of 121,000 square meters (-70.3%), a floor price of 15,988 yuan/flat (-14.8%), an equity ratio of 91.6%, and a land acquisition intensity (in terms of amount and area) of 7.6% and 9.9%. In an environment where sales continue to be sluggish and the capital chain is becoming marginal, the company has strict investment standards and is prudent in land acquisition. As of 2023H, the value of the company's saleable land reserves is about 166.6 billion yuan (-23.0%), and the saleable cycle is about 3 years. Once the marginal market improves, sufficient land reserves guarantee later sales.
Revenue and gross margin have risen, demonstrating business resilience. Consumption recovered moderately in the first half of 2023, and the company actively grasped the opportunities of the market's iterative restart. 2023H shopping center sales were 15.78 billion yuan (+30%), 139 million visitors (+55%), an average occupancy rate of 90%, self-owned business revenue of 2.7 billion yuan (+34.7%), gross profit margin of 62.9% (+13.0pct), commercial operating income and gross margin increased, demonstrating business resilience. As of 2023H, the company has laid out 45 shopping centers nationwide (30 weight+15 light), and substantial progress has been made in its strategy of juxtaposition. There are 32 projects in operation (including light assets and non-standardized products), with a total commercial area of 3.46 million square meters, including 20 Joy City (including light assets, commercial area of 2.93 million square meters); 13 projects under construction and preparation (including light assets), with a commercial area of about 1.48 million square meters.
Investment advice: Actively revitalize assets and follow the progress of the company's plans to reverse losses and increase profits. The pressure on the company's performance was fully released in 2022, and the company made every effort to reverse losses and increase profits with the primary goal of creating value and profit in 2023; the company responded to the call, revitalized assets, actively transferred its own properties in core locations in core cities such as Shanghai and Beijing, and paid attention to the company's later performance release. The company's net profit for 2023-2025 is estimated to be 74/11.0/170 million, and the 2024-2025 performance growth rate is 47% and 55%. The corresponding P/B is 1.04/0.97/0.88X, giving it a “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk warning
1. Market sales continued to be weak, and the company's sales and cash flow payments fell short of expectations; 2. Gross margin declined, and inventory impairment dragged down performance.
