The company released its semi-annual report: 23H1 achieved revenue of 8.130 billion yuan, +2.09% year-on-year; realized net profit of 409 million yuan, -171.97% year-on-year. Among them, 23Q1/Q2 achieved revenue of 4.222/3,908 billion yuan respectively, Q2 -7.44% month-on-month; realized net profit of 2.73/-136 million yuan, and Q2's loss margin narrowed.
Pre-baked anode production and sales volume: 23H1 The company's pre-baked anode production capacity remained at full capacity, with self-production of 1,455,900 tons, +10.02%; sales volume of 1,4209 million tons, +12.28%, of which export sales were 294,800 tons, -11.76% year-on-year, and domestic sales of 1.1261 million tons, +20.90% year-on-year.
The bottom signal of the pre-baked anode industry is clear: As a leading enterprise in the domestic pre-baked anode industry, the company is losing money, which means that the industry is generally in a state of deep loss, and the bottom signal of the anode industry is clear. Also, after entering the third quarter, domestic petroleum coke prices rebounded somewhat, and the price of pre-baked anodes stopped falling and stabilized. It is expected that starting from the second half of this year, the impact of falling inventory prices and losses will gradually be eliminated, and the company's profit per unit of pre-baked anodes will return to normal levels.
New production capacity for pre-baked anodes is progressing steadily: up to now, the 300,000 ton pre-baked anode project in Suotong, Longxi, the 1 million ton calcined coke project in Zhijiang, Hubei, the 340,000 ton pre-baked anode project in Shandong, and the 300,000 ton post-calcined coke project are progressing steadily. The company's total production capacity is expected to reach 5 million tons in 2025. In addition, in the first half of this year, the company officially began its overseas layout, signed a “Memorandum of Understanding on Investment” with UAE Global Aluminum EGA, and plans to build a pre-baked anode production base in the UAE as a joint venture.
Lithium battery anode products have begun to contribute to profits: The company currently has two production base layouts in the lithium battery anode field:
1) In Wulanchabu, Inner Mongolia, with an original production capacity of 15,000 tons of lithium battery anode, and a new 40,000 ton graphitization project was put into operation in the first half of this year; 2) Jiayuguan, Gansu, the first 50,000-ton graphite chemical phase was completed and put into operation in the first half of this year. In the first half of this year, the company produced 12,900 tons of lithium battery anode products, sold 0.94 million tons, achieved revenue of 149 million yuan, and gross margin of about 12.5%. The company's new production capacity is still in the process of climbing, and it is expected that the gross margin level still has a lot of room for improvement.
Risk warning: The project construction progress did not meet expectations, and the production and sales volume of project products did not meet expectations.
Investment advice: Maintain a “buy” rating.
Considering that the company 23H1 calculated more asset impairment losses, the company's profit forecast was lowered. The company's revenue for 2023-2025 is expected to be 160.99/196.36/280.31 billion yuan (original forecast 206.45/260.44/336.62), with a year-on-year growth rate of -17.0%/22.0%/42.8%, and net profit at 1.03/12.02/16.31 (original forecast 7.77/16.04/19.97) of RMB, respectively, with a year-on-year growth rate of -88.6%/1062.5%/35.8%; diluted EPS is 0.19/2.22/3.02 respectively Yuan. The PE corresponding to the current stock price is 85.6/7.4/5.4X. We believe that the company has achieved a very obvious competitive advantage in the field of pre-baked anodes, and is expected to seize the domestic “North Aluminum Move South” strategic opportunity period to achieve rapid expansion of production capacity; the company's strategy will expand its efforts in the field of new carbon materials. It is hoped that with its procurement advantages and low cost electricity price advantages in the petroleum coke field, it will achieve breakthroughs and rapid expansion in the production capacity of artificial graphite anode materials, with great room for growth; it will maintain its “buy” rating.