The company released its 2023 mid-year report: operating income was 143 million yuan (+49.0%, all the following are year-on-year terms), mainly due to Nellick's sales growth (+36.7%); net profit for Gimu - 402 million yuan (+1.08%), and losses narrowed slightly. Sales, management, and R&D expenses were 83 million yuan (+16.80%), 91 million yuan (+10.92%), and 310 million yuan (-9.25%), respectively. The expenses were relatively manageable. Cash and equivalent items on hand amounted to $1,582 million. The performance was generally in line with expectations.
Nellicx was rapidly dosed after medical insurance, and the indications continued to expand. Since its launch, the core product, Nellick, has achieved cumulative sales of 304 million yuan including tax. Especially since it was included in health insurance this year, it will be revealed that Nellick Q2's sales revenue has surged 153% year over year, and the number of sales boxes has increased 560% year over year. The global registration phase III clinical trial of Nellick's first-line treatment Ph+ ALL has been approved by the CDE and carried out domestically. At the same time, its second-line treatment of SDH deficient GIST has been certified as a breakthrough treatment by CDE, and future doses of Nellicac can be expected.
The APG2575 global clinical registration was approved, and several pipelines appeared on the international stage. APG-2575 Domestic Key Registration II is expected to be completed within the year. 2024H1 has submitted to the NDA, and at the same time, it has been approved by the FDA to launch the R/R CLL/SLL Global Registration Phase III clinical trial. In addition, the company's various early pipelines were unveiled at international academic conferences: APG-115 combined with K to treat melanoma and peripheral schwannoma were released at the 2023ASCO conference, and pre-clinical data for melanoma treatment was also presented at AACR; phase I data on APG-2449 overcoming NSCLC resistance to second-generation ALK inhibitors was released at ASCO; NSCLC, which treats EGFR mutations with APG-1252 and ositinib, will also be released by ESMO, which is worth looking forward to.
Profit forecasts and investment recommendations. The company's revenue for 2023-2025 is estimated to be 367/634/957 million yuan. Globalization of the company's core products can be expected. Using the DCF valuation method, the reasonable value obtained was HK$42.20 per share, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk warning. Risk of R&D failure, sales falling short of expectations, market competition exceeding expectations, etc.