2023H1 The company's performance is under pressure, short-term disturbances do not change long-term growth, and maintain a “buy” rating
2023H1 achieved revenue of 5.03 billion yuan, -2.25% year on year; net profit of 778 million yuan, year on year, -42.57%; net profit after deducting non-return net profit of 732 million yuan, -43.97% year on year; gross profit margin of 34.3%, year on year -3.18 pcts.
It is calculated that 2023Q2 achieved revenue of 2,683 billion yuan in a single quarter, +1.97% year-on-year, +14.37%; net profit of 398 million yuan, -45.93%, +4.51% month-on-month; after deducting non-return net profit of 396 million yuan, -43.91%, +17.85%, gross profit margin of 33.85%, year-on-year -4.54 pcts, month-on-month, -0.95 pcts. Affected by the downturn in the downstream market, we lowered our profit forecast for 2023-2025. We expect net profit from 2023-2025 to be 18.5/277/3,339 billion yuan (previous value was 2,845/33.44/3,913 billion yuan), corresponding EPS is 1.40/2.05/2.45 yuan (previous value was 2.15/2.53/2.96 yuan), and the current stock price corresponds to PE of 41.6/28.5/23.8 times. We are optimistic about the accelerated penetration of our products in high-end applications. Maintain a “buy” rating.
High-end applications are penetrating at an accelerated pace, and the performance of products such as IGBTs is being upgraded at an accelerated pace
In terms of IGBT, 2023H1 has continuously accelerated the serialization development of IGBT module products, completed the development of multiple models of module products in 4 application fields including photovoltaics, and launched multiple high-power module products to lay the product foundation for entering higher-end applications. In terms of third-generation semiconductors, the company continued to enrich the G1 and G2 platform product serialization to help many customers in fields such as new energy vehicles. Monthly sales of silicon carbide MOS continued to rise during this period. The sales share of silicon carbide MOS in silicon carbide power devices gradually exceeded 50%; MOSFET On the product side, all medium and low voltage MOS product platforms have expanded AEC-Q101 capabilities, and the performance of medium and low voltage advanced groove gates G3, G4, and wide SOA products has reached the industry's international advanced level, and has achieved steady growth.
Firmly implement intelligent manufacturing, and the continuous development of manufacturing and service business
In terms of manufacturing process platforms, 2023H1's 0.11 micron BCD technology platform has received product verification from leading customers, 0.15 micron digital BCD technology platform has begun to be introduced to the market, and the 0.18 micron analog BCD technology platform performance indicators have reached the international advanced level; in terms of packaging and testing technology platforms, intelligent power module packages are in full production, and mass production of the new IPM packaging products developed has begun. In addition, the new package forms developed earlier by the company (LFPAK, TOLL, TO247, etc.) have also been mass-produced for the photovoltaics and energy storage fields.
Risk warning: New products are progressing less than expected; industry competition is intensifying; technology research and development falls short of expectations.