Events:
According to the 2023 report of Hengrun shares, the company's 2023H1 realized operating income of 846 million yuan, + 4.32% compared with the same period last year, realized net profit of 55.309 million yuan, + 30.10% over the same period last year, and deducted non-return net profit of 50.33 million yuan, + 54.91% over the same period last year, which was basically in line with market expectations.
Wind power flange business steady growth, profit repair, bearings gradually increased. (1) the operating income of the company's 2023H1 wind power tower flange is 409 million yuan, which is + 6.78% compared with the same period last year, with steady growth. Mainly due to the growth of the wind power industry and the trend of large-scale wind turbines. According to the data of the National Energy Administration, China's new wind power installed 22.99GW in the first half of 2023, + 78% year on year, the company has obtained Vestas, General Electric Co, Siemens Gamesa, Alstom, Emerson, Samsung heavy Industry, South Korea Chongshan, Vision Energy, Xinjiang Goldwind Science & Technology, Yunda shares, Mingyang Intelligence, Shanghai Electric and other international and domestic well-known manufacturers qualified supplier qualifications or enter their supplier catalogue. At present, the company is one of the few enterprises in the world that can manufacture 9.0MW and Shanghai upwind tower flanges. at the same time, the company has achieved mass production of 12MW offshore wind tower flanges. Company 2023H1 wind power tower tube gross profit margin of 14.03%, year-on-year + 2.94pct, gross profit margin repair is mainly due to wind power tower flange price fluctuations and raw material prices decline.
(2) relying on forging capacity and precision manufacturing experience, the company has cut into the wind power bearing market and sold three rows of independent variable propeller bearings in bulk. The spindle bearing has been successfully developed and is in the testing stage. It will be released next year, and the bearing is expected to get the share of the leading wind power plant.
Active layout of computer leasing, the second growth curve is clear. The company and Shanghai Liuzhi Science and Technology Group jointly funded the establishment of Liuzhi Hengrun Intelligence (Shanghai) Co., Ltd., which plans to set up computing centers in Shanghai, Fuzhou Economic Development District, Wuhu, Anhui, Jining, Shandong and other places, and to build a cluster of GPU computing centers in the Yangtze River Delta. With the rapid iteration of the AI model, the gap between domestic supply and demand of computing power may increase, and computing leasing is expected to become a necessary solution to the model training of small and medium-sized enterprises. Relying on the strong card-taking ability, the company is expected to establish a barrier to calculating leasing, which opens the company's second growth curve.
Profit forecast: wind power business profit repair, computer leasing opens the second growth curve. It is estimated that the operating income of the company from 2023 to 2025 is 26.0 / 50.7 / 6.1 billion yuan, the net profit from 2023 to 2025 is 2.2 / 6.4 / 860 million yuan, and the corresponding PE is 54 / 18 / 14 times. Give 2024E earnings 22 times PE valuation, corresponding to the target price of 32 yuan, maintain the "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the installed capacity of wind power is not as expected; the gap between supply and demand is not as expected.