Event: the company's 2023H1 realized revenue of 2.45 billion yuan, 43% year-on-year, net profit of 170 million yuan, + 121% compared with the same period last year; 2023Q2 realized income of 1.3 billion yuan in a single quarter, compared with + 36% of the same quarter, net profit of 86 million yuan, and net profit of + 106% of the same quarter.
Full of orders on hand, steady growth in performance: the company's Q2 performance maintains steady growth, according to business:
1) New energy vehicle stamping business, the company has full on-hand orders, superimposed downstream vehicle sales growth, 2023H1 realized revenue of 1.33 billion yuan, year-on-year + 40% position 2) fuel vehicle stamping business, benefiting from 2022H1's low base, 2023H1 achieved revenue of 430 million yuan, year-on-year + 57% position 3) communication stamping business achieved revenue of 340 million yuan, year-on-year + 51% position 4) energy storage stamping business achieved revenue of 310 million yuan, + 33% year-on-year.
Profitability is under short-term pressure, and the expense rate during the period is improved: 1) the gross profit margin of the company's 2023Q2 is 17.5%, with a month-on-month ratio of + 0.4 PCT, which is mainly affected by changes in product structure. The gross profit margin of 2023H1 new energy / fuel vehicle / communications / energy storage business is 19.8%, 10.5%, 11.2%, 15.7%, respectively, compared with the same period last year. 0.5 PCT. 2) the expense rate during the 2023Q2 period is 9.2%, with a month-on-month ratio of-1.1 PCT, in which the sales expense rate is-0.2 PCT compared with the month-on-month ratio, and the management expense rate is 0.3 PCT compared with the month-on-month ratio, which mainly benefits from the increase in scale effect. The R & D expense rate is mainly affected by the fixed-point increase, and the financial expense rate is-0.4PCT compared with the month-on-month ratio.
Customer quality, full orders, capacity expansion: 1) the company's products include car body structure, seat structure, battery box and energy storage photovoltaic structure and so on. The company cooperates deeply with Guangzhou Auto Ean, BYD, NIO Inc. and other automobile companies, signing a strategic cooperation agreement with Ningde in 2020 to achieve a breakthrough in battery box business; energy storage structures are expected to cooperate with Huawei, Yiwei Lithium Energy, etc., with great incremental potential. The new fixed amount of 2023H1 is expected to be 28-28.5 billion yuan, with full orders on hand. 2) the company plans to raise an additional 1.84 billion yuan, laying out four production bases in Dongguan, Guangzhou, Changshu and Yibin, with an estimated new battery box / structure / inverter production capacity of 1.675 million sets. With the release of capacity, future growth is expected.
Profit forecast and valuation: taking into account the impact of increased competition in structural components and fluctuations in energy storage demand, we expect the company's 2023-2025 net profit to be RMB 4.75pm, 7.58pm, respectively, corresponding to a PE ratio of 14.3pm 9.0pm, maintaining a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: the continued macroeconomic downturn leads to sluggish demand in the industry, the risk of fluctuations in raw material prices, the unfavorable risk of new customer expansion, and the profit forecast deviation caused by the lower-than-expected sales of core customers.