维持增持评级 。公司2023年上半年实现营收8.45 亿，同比降21.45%，实现归母净利润4.44 亿，同比降32.34%，公司业绩略低于预期。考虑到钛精矿价格的回落、钛合金项目投产时间推后，下调公司2023-25 年EPS预测为2.56/2.73/3.33 元（原3.56/4.28/5.54 元）。参考同类公司，给予公司2023 年15 倍PE 进行估值，下调公司目标价至38.4（原47.42 元），维持“增持”评级。Introduction to this report:
The company's performance for the first half of 2023 fell slightly short of expectations. The balance between supply and demand for titanium concentrate was tight, and prices remained strong. The company's titanium alloy project continues to advance. We expect that after the titanium alloy project is implemented, the company's development space will be opened up.
Key points of investment:
Maintain ratings to increase holdings. The company achieved revenue of 845 million yuan in the first half of 2023, a year-on-year decrease of 21.45%, and net profit of 444 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 32.34%. The company's performance was slightly lower than expected. Considering the fall in the price of titanium concentrate and the delay in the commissioning of the titanium alloy project, the company lowered its EPS forecast for 2023-25 to 2.56/2.73/3.33 yuan (originally 3.56/4.28/5.54 yuan). Referring to similar companies, the company was given a valuation of 15 times PE in 2023, lowered the company's target price to 38.4 (originally 47.42 yuan), and maintained the “increase in holdings” rating.
Titanium concentrate maintains a tight balance, and prices are strong. In the first half of 2023, according to domestic and foreign titanium ore companies, some companies' output for the first half of the year fell short of expectations, annual production guidelines were lowered, and after a long period of mining, some mines experienced resource depletion problems. The increase in titanium ore was very limited, and supply and demand for titanium concentrate maintained a tight balance.
According to wind data, the average price of titanium concentrate (pan 46) in China in the first half of 2023 was 2183 yuan/ton, up 60 yuan/ton from the second half of 2022, down 121 yuan/ton from the previous year. The price of titanium concentrate was relatively stable. In the context of frequent real estate policies, we expect a tight balance between supply and demand for titanium concentrate.
Iron ore prices have been rising gradually since the 3rd quarter. We have observed that iron ore prices have risen slightly since the 3rd quarter. In July-August, the average price of 61% PB powder in Rizhao Port was 868 yuan/ton, which is 13 yuan/ton higher than the January-June average. The company's vanadium-titanium-iron ore concentrate followed iron ore prices. The company's iron ore sector profit is expected to rise slightly in the 3rd quarter.
The titanium alloy project is progressing steadily. Approval procedures such as energy assessment and EIA for the company's titanium material project have been completed, and it is expected to be put into operation in 2025; the 50,000 ton iron phosphate project is expected to be put into operation by the end of November. We believe that the implementation of iron phosphate and titanium alloy projects will bring new performance growth points to the company.
Risk warning: The progress of the new construction project is falling short of expectations.
