IDC 收入保持稳健，毛利率一定程度受电价调控政策影响1H23 公司IDC 及其增值服务业务实现营收10.84 亿元，同比增长1.36%，主要受到下游需求增长放缓，部分客户退租等因素的影响，但公司IDC 业务整体经营仍保持稳健。盈利能力方面，公司IDC 业务毛利率同比下降4.11pct至39.29%，主要受新增数据中心固定成本增加、现有机房降耗改造、电价调控政策的影响。项目储备方面，公司房山一期已基本实现满负荷运营，二期已投产机柜上架率稳步提升，河北燕郊项目逐步投入运营。截至1H23，公司已投产机柜达5 万个，拥有超过11 万个在建及储备项目规划机柜。1H23's net profit is under pressure in the short term, and the long-term development trend is improving. 1H23's operating income is 3.8 billion yuan (YoY: 5.50%); net profit of Gimu is 253 million yuan (YOY:
-24.16%). On a quarterly basis, 2Q23's operating income was 1,920 million yuan (YoY: 8.54%); net profit to the parent was 79 million yuan (YOY: -43.35%), mainly due to factors such as increased fixed costs for additional data centers, energy consumption modifications in existing computer rooms, and electricity price control policies. The company continues to consolidate its data center resource reserves in core regions and is expected to benefit from the development of new applications such as AIGC, and the long-term development trend is improving. Considering the impact of the fixed costs of newly delivered projects, we expect the company's EBITDA for 23-25 to be 16.96/19.87/2180 million yuan (previous value: 19.68/21.59/2,279 million yuan). Considering the impact of the electricity price regulation policy, give it a 23-year EV/EBITDA of 13.5x (comparable corporate average:
16.37x), corresponding to the target price of 12.49 yuan (previous value: 16.22 yuan), maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.
IDC's revenue has remained steady, and gross margin has been affected to a certain extent by the electricity price regulation policy. 1H23's IDC and its value-added service business achieved revenue of 1,084 million yuan, an increase of 1.36% over the previous year. Mainly affected by factors such as a slowdown in downstream demand growth and some customer rent-outs, etc., the overall operation of the company's IDC business has remained steady. In terms of profitability, the company's IDC business gross margin fell 4.11pct to 39.29% year-on-year, mainly due to increased fixed costs for new data centers, consumption reduction and transformation of existing computer rooms, and electricity price regulation policies. In terms of project reserves, the first phase of the company's Fangshan Phase I has basically achieved full operation, the inventory rate of the cabinets already put into production in Phase II has steadily increased, and the Hebei Yanjiao project has gradually been put into operation. As of 1H23, the company has put into production 50,000 cabinets and has more than 110,000 cabinets under construction and planned reserve projects.
The cloud computing business maintained steady growth, and the computing power pilot consolidated its competitive advantage. 1H23 achieved revenue of 2,673 billion yuan for cloud computing and related services, an increase of 7.43% over the previous year. Among them, the revenue revenue of the subsidiary Wushuang Technology increased 9.12% year-on-year. Against the backdrop of reduced advertising budgets for customers in some industries, the company stabilized revenue growth by adjusting the customer structure and actively expanding new business markets. In addition, in line with the development trend of the AIGC era, the company is actively seeking development opportunities for intelligent computing innovation business. The company piloted a computing power center at the Beijing Yizhuang data center and used the Nvidia A800 eight-card module server to set up computing power business capabilities. In August 2023, it officially provided high-performance computing power services to industry customers, and will continue to invest in higher-performance H800 eight-card module servers in the future.
Maintain an “increase in holdings” rating
We believe that as the company continues to expand IDC's resource reserves in its core area, its long-term performance base is expected to be further consolidated. Considering the impact of the fixed costs of newly delivered projects, its 23-25 EBITDA is estimated to be $16.96/19.87/2180 million, respectively (previous value: 19.68/21.59/2,279 billion yuan), respectively. The average EV/EBITDA value of comparable companies in 2023 was 16.37x. Considering the impact of electricity price regulation policies, the company was given an EV/EBITDA of 13.5x in 2023, corresponding to a target price of 12.49 yuan (previous value: 16.22 yuan), maintaining the “increase in holdings” rating.
Risk warning: Customer listing progress falls short of expectations; project construction and delivery progress falls short of expectations.
