23H1，公司新签订单112 亿元，同比+35%；工业建筑/公共建筑/EPC 及装配式/加盟业务新签订单57/30/22/2 亿元，同比+20%/+18%/+157%/+89%。23Q2，公司新签订单57 亿元，同比+47%；工业建筑/公共建筑/EPC 及装配式/加盟业务新签订单29/17/9/1.2 亿元，同比+28%/+75%/+74%/+49%。23H1 钢价下跌背景下，公司订单仍实现快速增长，或预示23H2 公司收入业绩有望提速。23H1，公司钢结构销量58 万吨，同比+13%；其中23Q2 销量32 万吨，同比+12%。Event: Seiko Steel structure released its 2023 half-yearly report. 23H1, the company realized total operating income / return net profit / deducted non-net profit 77 390 million yuan, compared with the same period last year, + 6% plus 3% and 2%. 23Q2, the company realized total operating income / return net profit / deducted non-net profit of RMB 190 million, compared with the same period last year, + 12% Universe 5% Universe 3%.
Comments:
Orders to maintain rapid growth, or indicate that 23H2 revenue performance growth is expected to accelerate.
23H1, the company signed a new order of 11.2 billion yuan, year-on-year + 35%; industrial building / public building / EPC and assembly / franchise business newly signed order 57max 30max 22max 200 million yuan, year-on-year + 20% max "18% amp" 157% ram 89%. 23Q2, the company signed a new order of 5.7 billion yuan, + 47% compared with the same period last year; industrial building / public building / EPC and assembly / joining business newly signed order 29x17here $120,000,000, compared with the same period last year + 28%, 75%, 74%, 49%. In the context of the decline in 23H1 steel prices, the company's orders are still growing rapidly, which may indicate that 23H2's revenue performance is expected to accelerate. 23H1, the company's steel structure sales of 580000 tons, + 13% year-on-year; of which 23Q2 sales of 320000 tons, + 12% year-on-year.
The downstream customers of industrial construction projects are mainly leading enterprises in emerging or countercyclical industries such as BYD, Geely, BMW, Haitian, Jinmai Lang, Fanako, Kaishi, Holland Quaternus and other emerging industries. Newly signed orders for public construction business include a number of airport high-speed rail projects such as Anhui Hefei Xinqiao Airport Phase II, Chongqing-Kunming High-speed Railway Yibin Station Transportation Hub, Chongqing East Railway Station Building of Chongqing-Guizhou Railway, as well as key regional landmark projects such as Beijing Xinguangda Center Phase III and Jiangxi Pingxiang Olympic Sports Center.
The improvement in cash flow benefited from an increase in cash-to-cash ratio compared with the same period last year.
23H1, the company's gross profit margin was 14.15%, slightly higher than the same period last year, or mainly benefited from the decline in steel prices; the net operating cash flow was 70 million yuan, + 460 million yuan year-on-year, mainly benefiting from the improvement in cash-to-cash ratio (23H1: 108%, year-on-year + 4pcts). At the end of 23H1, the company's notes and accounts receivable were 2.76 billion yuan, slightly lower than at the beginning of the period.
Earnings forecasts, valuations and ratings: 23H1 Seiko steel structure orders maintain rapid growth, or indicate that 23H2 revenue performance growth is expected to accelerate; improved cash flow, benefiting from a year-on-year increase in cash flow. Combined with the company's 2022 profit and 23H1 revenue profit growth, we adjust the company's 2023-2024 net profit forecast to 824 million yuan (down 17%), 946 million yuan (down 19%), and increase the 2025 return net profit forecast of 1.083 billion yuan. The current price corresponds to the company's dynamic price-to-earnings ratio of 9x in 2023 and maintains a "buy" rating.
Risk hint: steel price fluctuates sharply, steel structure demand is lower than expected risk, prefabricated construction promotion is less than expected risk, order execution schedule is not as expected risk.