This article was first posted on the official account of Wechat, Tencent US Stock (qqustock).

U. S. stocks are still near record levels, but not everyone believes that the frenzied momentum can continue.

Last month, the fund flow figures, which can be seen as one of the indicators of investor sentiment, showed signs of reversal, according to Qian magazine's website. Fund investors, mainly middle-class Americans who save for retirement, pulled more than $2 billion out of U.S. stock mutual funds and ETF in May.

Many investment experts are also expressing their concerns. The following five famous investors have seen signs similar to the 2008 financial crisis, predicting that the slump is coming, and several of them have extreme descriptions.

Of course, this is not a reason for investors to run away immediately. after all, similar predictions began a year ago, but it is clear that investors need to use this opportunity to clear their heads and carefully evaluate their portfolios and make all necessary adjustments.

When will the good times come to an end? According to Rob Arnott, founder of Research Affiliates, this is a meaningless question.

People always ask: what will be the catalyst for market collapse? If you really want to define it, it must be an amazing event, and even after the event, you often can't define it. "

Prophecy one: "the pain will be unbearable." -Tom Forester, Chief Investment Officer of Forester Capital Management

Forrest has already had a successful prophecy. Before the market crash in 2008, Forrest sold enough bank shares to reduce the financial share of his fund to 5%-you know, these stocks accounted for as much as 20% of the s & p 500 at the time. Institutional investors hailed Forrester's fund as "the only long-only US stock mutual fund that made money in 2008".

Now Forrest can't sleep at night again.

'The last two crashes were the result of an industry fiasco, technology in 2000 and housing in 2008,'he said. But at the moment, he is afraid that almost every sector has been overvalued. In fact, according to FactSet, nine of the top 10 sectors of the S & P 500 have exceeded their nearly 10-year average, with the exception of telecoms.

"the next time we have a bear market, the pain will be unbearable." Forrest asserted, "on the way down, we will have nowhere to hide."

Prophecy two: "collapse is coming." Investor Jim Rogers

Roughly a few months before the 2008 crash, the legendary investor who co-founded the quantum fund with George Soros began shorting Wall Street's investment banks. Now, he claims, collapse is imminent.

Rogers pointed out on the Business Insider program this month: "the US stock market is forming a bubble, and since there is a bubble, it will burst one day." You have no reason not to worry about it. "

He also pointed out that debt was an important factor in what made the financial meltdown so terrible in 2008. But today, the debt burden of both the United States and China, and even the Fed, is much heavier than it was in 2008.

With a heavy debt burden, Congress wants to cut taxes or borrow to boost growth in a recession, and the room for turnaround is severely squeezed. In the long run, high government debt tends to translate into higher interest rates, making it difficult for both governments and businesses to invest in the economy as needed.

Henry Blodget, chief executive of Business Insider, asked: "how serious will the collapse be?"

74-year-old Rogers replied, "it's going to be the scariest time I've ever seen in my life."

Prophecy 3: "Asset holders will suffer a 50% loss." -Marc Faber, Swiss investor and editor of The Gloom, Boom and Doom Report Newsletter

Frankly speaking, Mak Jiahua always claims that the stock market will suffer an apocalyptic disaster, which is why he is called "Doctor Doomsday". But he insists that he is not alarmist, but based on research and reasoning. He pointed out that there are at least two major warning signals in the market.

First, at the New York Stock Exchange, the number of shares bought with margin, or borrowed money, has reached at least the highest level since the 1950s. This often happens when stock prices are expensive-such as now.

'The stock price is actually out of control, 'Mr. Mak said. Us stocks, which have historically traded at a price-to-earnings ratio of about 17, are now around 30.

He warned bluntly that once the sale began, it would have an avalanche effect. "I think a more realistic estimate is that asset holders will suffer a 50 per cent loss. Some people lose everything. "

Second, the spectacular rally of the stock market so far is mainly supported by a small number of stocks. In fact, nearly 1/3 of the gains in the S & P 500 in 2016 came entirely from the contribution of five stocks. Mak Jiahua pointed out that this means that everyone is now relying on a very small number of stocks to support the entire market.

"if only a few stocks are up, it is itself a sign that there is something wrong with the health of the market."

Prophecy 4: the risks in all markets are increasing with each passing day. " -- Janus Henderson Global Unconstrained Bond Fund Manager Bill Gross

"Don't be hypnotized by the blue sky." "risks are growing in all markets," Mr. Gross, known as the debt king, wrote in his June investment outlook. "

Before the storm hit in 2008, Gross raised his cash position to $50 billion in preparation for possible redemption requests from partners. Now he worries that similar risks are starting to pile up again.

Gross warns that investors have begun to resort to "making money with money" because the amount of money injected into the financial economy has far exceeded that of the real economy. If the high debt, the aging population and the labor force of the United StatesAutomationTaken together, productivity is already in big trouble. Gross stressed that, in fact, productivity is the long-term driver of economic growth and corporate profits.

He said that this series of challenges to productivity "are bound to make the growth rate of the US and global economy much lower than the historical normal."

Prophecy 5: "fear is not enough." -- Arnault, founder of Research Affiliates

Arnott is known as the "father of smart beta", a popular passive investment strategy that attracted more than $55 billion last year. Arnott provides advice to customers around the world. In an interview with Bloomberg in 2007, he predicted that a recession was coming.

Recently, Arnault's view of the US stock market is also getting worse. 'investors lack the necessary caution,'he said. "in the United States, fear is not enough." "people seem to think that the so-called risk saddle doesn't exist," Arnott said. "

But in his opinion, the wind could change at any time. "the market situation changes with the change of people's feelings. One bad thing can lead to a bear market. " Arnott believes that such a change seems to have happened in the first place. "it's hard for a real long-term investor to be optimistic because the market is too expensive. It could fall over at any moment and it's over. "