2023 年上半年，公司全焦产量为251.71 万吨，同比减少11.56%。焦化业务营业收入95.72/81.22 亿元，分别同比-26.63%/-18.66%，毛利率下降8.32pcts 至15.15%。以产量作为销量数据的近似值计算，公司2023 年上半年焦化板块的单位收入同比-17.04%，单位成本同比-8.03%，单位毛利同比-46.43%。公司目前拥有四大煤矿，核准产能630 万吨/年，2023 年上半年精煤产量159.60 万吨；焦化生产能力715 万吨/年，品质稳定优良，主要为标准一级焦炭；公司拥有储量丰富的优质煤炭和煤层气资源，具备“煤-焦-气-化-氢”一体化完整产业链。The company's coking business performance declined in the first half of 2023, and losses turned month-on-month in the second quarter. The main reason was the decline in the price of coking products. However, the company is aggressive in the field of hydrogen energy, and progress has been made in several projects in the first half of the year. The subsidiary Flying Speed Technology ranked first in the industry in terms of risk in hydrogen energy vehicles. Although the company's coking business will still be suppressed by the boom in the industrial chain in the second half of the year, we are optimistic about the potential of the company's hydrogen energy sector to increase valuation and maintain a “buy” rating.
Prices of coking products fell in the first half of 2023, and Q2 turned into losses month-on-month. The company's revenue for the first half of 2023 was 9.739 billion yuan, -2,707% year-on-year, while net profit attributed/net profit non-attributable net profit was 373/352 million yuan, respectively, -72.55%/-76.52% over the same period. The decline in operating income and net profit is mainly due to the overall downward trend in the market prices of coal, coke and chemical products in China in the first half of 2023. In the second quarter of 2023, the company's operating income/operating costs were 4401/4462 billion yuan respectively. Gross profit turned negative, net profit was -102 million yuan, and loss from quarter to quarter.
The cost reduction was not as high as the price drop, and the gross margin of the coking sector business fell to 15%, yet the resource endowment advantage is still there.
In the first half of 2023, the company's total coke production was 2,5171 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 11.56%. The revenue of the coking business was 9572/8.122 billion yuan, respectively -26.63%/-18.66%, year-on-year, and gross margin decreased by 8.32 pcts to 15.15%. Using production as an approximate value of sales data, the company's unit revenue for the coking sector in the first half of 2023 was -17.04%, unit cost was -8.03%, and unit gross profit was -46.43%. The company currently has four major coal mines, with an approved production capacity of 6.3 million tons/year, and a refined coal output of 1,596 million tons in the first half of 2023; the coking production capacity is 7.15 million tons/year, with stable and excellent quality, mainly standard grade coke; the company has abundant reserves of high-quality coal and coalbed methane resources, and has a complete “coal-coke-gas-chemical-hydrogen” integrated industrial chain.
The holding subsidiary Feichi Technology's hydrogen energy vehicle had the highest risk in the first half of the year, and other hydrogen energy projects continued to advance. In the first half of 2023, the company's two major new energy commercial vehicle manufacturing and sales companies, Feichi Technology and Qingdao Meijin respectively achieved revenue of 195/073 million yuan, -7.44%/-44.72% over the same period, achieving net profit of -0.47/-30 billion yuan, and a slight increase in the scale of losses. From January to June 2023, the total number of fuel cell vehicles of all types produced by Flying Spur was 237, ranking first in the industry. In the first half of 2023, the company made a number of developments in the hydrogen energy industry. The opening of the company's Foshan Hydrogen Energy Technology Park and the launch ceremony of the new Feichi Technology vehicle were held. Currently, the Science Park settlement projects include the Fei Chi Technology project, the hydrogen energy vehicle core equipment project, distributed green hydrogen generation+hydrogenation network project, etc.; the first phase of the Meijin Hydrogen Energy Headquarters Project in Daxing, Beijing also started successfully; the company also unveiled China's first “hydrogen energy trading platform” at the first China Carbon Finance Forum.
Risk factors: Economic recovery falls short of expectations and affects demand for coke; implementation of hydrogen energy plans and policies falls short of expectations.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: Considering the expectation that the price of coking products will be weak in the second half of the year, we lowered the company's EPS forecast from 2023 to 2025 to 0.23/0.29/0.32 yuan (the original forecast was 0.49/0.52/0.59 yuan).
Maintain a “buy” rating.
