Key points of investment:
The motor vehicle inspection policy has gradually bottomed out, and the industry has ushered in a reversal: as a domestic motor vehicle inspection equipment leader, the company has extended downstream into the inspection service business, and its performance is expected to reach an inflection point.
The annual motor vehicle inspection policy has bottomed out, and inspections are picking up
The latest policy in 2022 is the 6/10th year of inspection in the first 10 years, once every year after 10 years. Based on 15 years of life, a single vehicle needs to be tested 7 times. Compared with the 2014 policy (exemption from inspection for the first 6 years, inspection once a year after 6 years, inspection once every year after 6 years, and once inspection in the latter half of 15 years), the decrease is 30%, and the frequency of testing has decreased. We believe that there is a clear gap between domestic testing frequency and developed countries. It is unlikely that the number of tests will continue to be reduced in the future. The testing policy may gradually bottom out. As the number of tests in progress continues to grow, the industry is expected to reach an inflection point.
The company has transitioned from an inspection system to an inspection operation service business. In 2022, the company's inspection system business accounted for 56.57% and inspection services accounted for 29.42%. The company expanded the inspection operation service market through acquisitions, capital increases, mergers and acquisitions, etc., and the inspection service business developed rapidly. Considering the scarcity of land in first-tier cities, some second-tier and third-tier cities may become the main battleground for the development of testing stations in the future, and the profitability of individual testing stations may be divided.
New energy vehicles are gradually entering the annual inspection period, opening up new market space
The number of new energy vehicles owned in 2022 reached 13.1 million, and the number of new energy vehicles in 14-17 reached the first test period one after another. The number of tests in 20-22 was 276/394/4.96 million, respectively. According to the growth rate of NEV ownership in 20-22, it is estimated that 711/928/963/1207/17.36 million vehicles will be tested in 23-27, with a CAGR of 24.99%. The inspection of new energy vehicles pays more attention to the three-electric system. Currently, the company has laid out research and development of testing equipment and technology related to the safety of new energy vehicles.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
We expect the company's revenue for 23-25 to be 482/8.0/1,228 million yuan respectively, with a corresponding growth rate of 7.68%/65.97%/53.51%; net profit for returning home to 0.70/1.48/271 million yuan, respectively, with a corresponding growth rate of 324.03%/109.95%/83.24%. EPS was 0.31/0.65/1.18 yuan/share, respectively, and the 2-year CAGR of 23-25 was 96.14%. The DCF absolute valuation method measured the company's value of 20.39 yuan per share, which is 26.11 times the average PE of a comparable company in 2024. Combined with the absolute valuation method and the relative valuation method, we gave the company 32 times PE in 2024, a target price of 20.64 yuan, covered for the first time, and gave it a “buy” rating.
Risk warning: Risk of changes in testing policies, risk of test station expansion and promised performance indicators falling short of expectations, risk of changes in profit of individual testing stations.