Investors in LARK Distilling Co. Ltd. (ASX:LRK) had a good week, as its shares rose 5.8% to close at AU$1.55 following the release of its annual results. Results overall were mixed; even though revenues of AU$20m beat expectations by 17%, statutory losses were AU$0.065 per share, 5.0% larger than what the analysts had forecast. This is an important time for investors, as they can track a company's performance in its report, look at what experts are forecasting for next year, and see if there has been any change to expectations for the business. So we collected the latest post-earnings statutory consensus estimates to see what could be in store for next year.

Check out our latest analysis for LARK Distilling

Taking into account the latest results, the current consensus, from the twin analysts covering LARK Distilling, is for revenues of AU$18.2m in 2024. This implies a considerable 8.4% reduction in LARK Distilling's revenue over the past 12 months. Losses are predicted to fall substantially, shrinking 27% to AU$0.048. Yet prior to the latest earnings, the analysts had been forecasting revenues of AU$19.5m and losses of AU$0.035 per share in 2024. So it's pretty clear the analysts have mixed opinions on LARK Distilling after this update; revenues were downgraded and per-share losses expected to increase.

There was no major change to the consensus price target of AU$2.60, signalling that the business is performing roughly in line with expectations, despite lower earnings per share forecasts.

Looking at the bigger picture now, one of the ways we can make sense of these forecasts is to see how they measure up against both past performance and industry growth estimates. These estimates imply that revenue is expected to slow, with a forecast annualised decline of 8.4% by the end of 2024. This indicates a significant reduction from annual growth of 40% over the last five years. By contrast, our data suggests that other companies (with analyst coverage) in the same industry are forecast to see their revenue grow 5.7% annually for the foreseeable future. It's pretty clear that LARK Distilling's revenues are expected to perform substantially worse than the wider industry.

The Bottom Line

The most important thing to take away is that the analysts increased their loss per share estimates for next year. Unfortunately, they also downgraded their revenue estimates, and our data indicates underperformance compared to the wider industry. Even so, earnings per share are more important to the intrinsic value of the business. The consensus price target held steady at AU$2.60, with the latest estimates not enough to have an impact on their price targets.

Keeping that in mind, we still think that the longer term trajectory of the business is much more important for investors to consider. At least one analyst has provided forecasts out to 2026, which can be seen for free on our platform here.

Before you take the next step you should know about the 3 warning signs for LARK Distilling (1 is potentially serious!) that we have uncovered.

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This article by Simply Wall St is general in nature. We provide commentary based on historical data and analyst forecasts only using an unbiased methodology and our articles are not intended to be financial advice. It does not constitute a recommendation to buy or sell any stock, and does not take account of your objectives, or your financial situation. We aim to bring you long-term focused analysis driven by fundamental data. Note that our analysis may not factor in the latest price-sensitive company announcements or qualitative material. Simply Wall St has no position in any stocks mentioned.