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好想你(002582):业绩符合预期 渠道优化望加速放量

I miss you so much (002582): Performance is in line with expectations, channel optimization is expected to accelerate release

華鑫證券 ·  Aug 30, 2023 00:00

On August 30, 2023, I would like you to release the half-yearly report of 2023.

Main points of investment

Performance is in line with expectations, profits are under short-term pressure

The revenue of 2023H1 is 701 million yuan (up 14%), and the net profit of returning mother is-18 million yuan (2022H1 is 2 million yuan). In the first half of the year, gross profit margin is 23.89% (same as minus 1pct); net profit rate is-2.89% (same as minus 3pct); rate of sales expenses is 22.08% (same as increase of 1pct); rate of management expenses is 8.1% (same as minus 1pct); proportion of business tax and additional is 1.16% (same as minus 0.1pct); net cash flow of operating activities is 181 million yuan (same as increase of 501%). Among them, the revenue of 2023Q2 is 286 million yuan (up 17%), and the net profit of returning to the mother is-31 million yuan (2022Q2 is-6 million yuan). Gross profit margin 19.8% (same as increase 2pct), net profit rate-11.03% (same as minus 8pct), sales expense rate 25.42% (same as increase 4pct), management expense rate 10.16% (same as minus 2pct), operating tax and additional ratio 1.3% (same as minus 0.05pct).

Focus on red jujube + healthy lock fresh food, optimize and upgrade through all channels

In terms of products, the revenue of 2023H1 jujube / nut / other / other business revenue is RMB 5.32, 0.34 and 0.66 million, compared with the same period last year, which is + 39%, 52% and 45%, respectively.

From a sub-channel point of view, the revenue of 2023H1 direct sales / distribution model is 371 million yuan, with a 14% increase of 11%. The company focuses on developing quality channels such as Shang Chao (Tianhong, Aeon, Dennis), convenience stores (whole family, 7-11, Rosen), snacks (snacks are busy, snacks Youming, Dai Yonghong) and other high-quality channels. From a regional point of view, the 2023H1 revenue of B2C/ / Huazhong / other regions is RMB 2.05Universe 2.56 million, compared with the same period last year, + 40%, + 40%, 13%, 31%, 19%. As of the end of 2023H1, the company has a total of 428 stores and a net decrease of 118. the company optimizes dealer management to reduce cost and increase efficiency, and eliminate dealers who do not meet the requirements. The company focuses on red jujube + healthy locked fresh food, adheres to the "1x N" brand strategy, carries out marketing activities through offline high-quality channels and online new media platforms, and increases the exposure of large single magenta pie. In the first half of the year, the cumulative exposure of online topics "miss you jujube" exceeded 34 million.

Profit forecast

We are optimistic about the company's products and channels two-wheel drive, power new retail and snack franchise channels. According to the China report, we slightly adjust the EPS to 0.01max 0.08max in 2023-2025 (the previous value is 0.01max 0.07max 0.11 respectively), and the current share price corresponds to 679max 100max 61 times, maintaining the "buy" investment rating.

Risk hint

Macroeconomic downside risks, raw material rising risks, and new product growth falling short of expectations

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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