Q2 performance is growing faster than revenue, waiting for demand to pick up gradually and maintain a "buy" rating.
2023H1 realized operating income of 450 million yuan (- 1.0%), net profit of 110 million yuan (+ 9.7%), and non-return net profit of 100 million yuan (+ 10.1%). 2023Q2 realized operating income of 280 million yuan (+ 4.5%), net profit of 70 million yuan (+ 11.7%), and non-return net profit of 70 million yuan (+ 11.5%). The slowdown in new housing completion has led to weak demand. We downgrade our profit forecast for 2023-2025. It is estimated that the net profit of 2023-2025 will be 2.3pm 2.7 / 310 million (the original value in 2023-2025 is 2.6pm), corresponding to 1.25max 1.45x1.68 for EPS, and the current stock price will correspond to 10.4 times for PE, with rapid growth in new categories and maintaining the "buy" rating unchanged.
Cabinets, washing and other new categories have increased rapidly, and the optimization of dealers and the transformation of stores have continuously improved the quality of channels.
From a product point of view, 23H1 company integrated cooker revenue 400 million (- 5.4%), revenue accounted for 88.8% (- 4.1pcts); wooden cabinet revenue 18.21 million (+ 133.7%), revenue accounted for 4.0% (+ 2.3pcts); other kitchen supplies income 27.83 million (+ 91.1%), revenue accounted for 6.1% (+ 3.0pcts). During the 618th event, the turnover of the company's TJ3-8B steaming and baking synchronous integrated cooker exceeded 100 million yuan, and the product won the first place in single sales of steaming and baking synchronous products on Tmall and JD.com platforms respectively. From a sub-channel point of view, 23H1 dealers sell 420 million (- 0.4%), accounting for 92.7% of revenue (+ 0.6pct); e-commerce sales of 18.74 million (- 10.0%), revenue of 4.1% (- 0.4pct); offline direct sales of 13.12 million (- 6.4%), revenue of 2.9% (- 0.2pct); overseas sales of 1.04 million (- 7.0%), accounting for 0.2% of revenue (+ 0pct). Dealer group continues to optimize, as of the end of June, the company has nearly 1300 dealers and about 2200 sales terminals. 2023H1 has added and optimized more than 100 dealers, maintaining nearly 1300 dealers, and adding or transforming about 150 Shuaifeng fifth-generation image stores; at present, the company has achieved more than 1200 cooperation outlets with local home decoration, and continues to layout new sinking channels.
The fall in the price of raw materials leads to the increase of Q2 gross profit margin, and the increase in cost investment shows the company's determination to seize the market.
2023Q2 gross profit margin 48.0% (+ 1.8pct), the main contribution of raw material price decline. The expense rate during the 2023Q2 period is 18.3% (- 0.8pct), of which the sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate is 14.0%, 3.8%, 3.8%, 3.1%, and + 3.0/-2.3/-1.3/-0.2pct, respectively, compared with the same period last year. Under the influence of the increase in gross profit margin, the annual net profit margin of 2023Q2 is 26.4% (+ 1.7pct), and the deduction of non-net profit rate is 24.6% (+ 1.5pct).
Risk tips: rising prices of raw materials, consumer demand less than expected, channel expansion is not as expected risk.