油价下跌叠加炼化价差收窄，公司23H1 业绩承压。2023 年H1 布伦特原油均价在79 美元/桶，同比-24%，环比-15%。油价高位回落致公司库存损失增加，影响23H1盈利。此外，公司炼化板块主要产品价格下跌，2023H1 尿素、柴油、聚乙烯、聚丙烯均价分别在2463 元/吨、7784 元/吨、8102 元/吨、8005 元/吨，同比分别-13%、-5%、-9%、-10%，环比分别-4%、-10%、+1%、-4%。23H1 公司原油加工及石油制品毛利率18%，同比-8pct；聚烯烃类产品毛利率-16%。产品价格下滑叠加天然气大宗原料涨价致公司价差收窄，炼化板块毛利率下滑，叠加油价下跌库存损失增加，致公司23H1 业绩承压下滑。Incidents:
The company released the 2023 semi-annual report. In 2023, H1 achieved operating income of 21.8 billion yuan, -10% year-on-year; realized net profit of 700 million yuan, -235% year-on-year. Among them, Q2 achieved revenue of 11.8 billion yuan in a single quarter, -12% year-on-year, and +18% month-on-month; realized net profit of 200 million yuan, -400 million yuan year-on-year, +300 million yuan over the previous year.
Comment:
The drop in oil prices combined with the narrowing of the refining and chemical price gap has put pressure on the company's 23H1 performance. The average price of H1 Brent crude oil in 2023 was $79 per barrel, -24% year on year and -15% month on month. The fall in high oil prices led to an increase in the company's inventory losses, which affected 23H1's profit. In addition, the prices of the company's main products in the refining and chemical sector fell. The average prices of 2023H1 urea, diesel, polyethylene and polypropylene were 2,463 yuan/ton, 7784 yuan/ton, 8102 yuan/ton, and 8005 yuan/ton, respectively, -13%, -5%, -9%, and -10% year-on-year, and -4%, respectively. 23H1's gross profit margin for crude oil processing and petroleum products was 18%, year-on-year -8pct; gross profit margin for polyolefin products was -16%. The decline in product prices compounded by the price increase of natural gas raw materials led to a narrowing of the company's price spread, a decline in gross margin in the refining and chemical sector, compounded by a drop in oil prices and an increase in inventory losses. As a result, the company's 23H1 performance declined under pressure.
Demand for refined oil products continues to pick up, and the company's refining sector performance is expected to recover. During the peak travel season in July and August 2023, residents are more willing to travel, consumption continues to recover due to economic fundamentals, and demand for refined oil products continues to pick up. The average prices of gasoline, diesel, and kerosene in the second quarter of '23 were 8,608, 7477, and 7550 yuan/ton, respectively, -5%, -12%, and -0.1% year-on-year, and -0.1%, respectively, -0.1%, -5%, and +0%, respectively. The refining price difference from April to August 2023 was 862 yuan/ton, +667 yuan/ton year on year, and the popularity of refined oil products continued to be high. The peak summer demand season has arrived, which is favorable to the consumption of refined oil products. Demand for refined oil products is expected to continue to improve, and it is expected that the company's main refining and chemical business profits will pick up.
Together with Saudi Aramco, the group's refining and chemical projects are expected to advance rapidly. On March 26, 2023, North China Huajin Group, Saudi Aramco, and Panjin Xincheng Group signed a final agreement. The three parties will develop a large-scale integrated refining and chemical plant in Northeast China. On March 29, 2023, construction of the fine chemical and raw material engineering project jointly invested by the three parties began. The total investment of the project was 83.7 billion yuan. The crude oil processing capacity is 300,000 b/d (equivalent to 15 million tons/year) and 32 sets of ethylene and PX process equipment. It is expected to be fully operated in 2026. Additionally, Saudi Aramco will supply up to 210,000 b/d (equivalent to 10 million tons/year) of crude oil for the project to guarantee the project's crude oil supply. As the only listed company in the petrochemical sector under the China Ordnance Industry Group and one of the largest integrated petrochemical enterprises in China, Huajin Co., Ltd. has obvious production scale advantages and vertical integration advantages. Saudi Aramco's integrated refining and chemical project is owned by North Huajin Chemical Group, a holding subsidiary of the group company Military Engineering Group. Huajin Co., Ltd. is expected to participate in the construction of the project in due course. At that time, the competitiveness of the company's petrochemical and fine chemical sectors will improve markedly.
It is proposed to establish a joint venture with Zhenhua Petroleum and Linggang Industrial, and the crude oil reserve project is progressing in an orderly manner. The registered capital of the Dayou Crude Oil Reserve Project is 590 million yuan, of which Zhenhua Petroleum holds 75%, Huajin shares 15%, and Linggang Industrial accounts for 10%. In addition, the company currently has a 300,000-ton crude oil terminal at Jinzhou Port, with a channel navigation capacity of 150,000 tons. After completing the dredging of the waterway by the end of 2024, the overall navigation capacity will reach 300,000 tons. After the project is completed, the company will connect the project with the Huajin Pipeline and Beili Pipeline through the Dayou Oil Transport Station. On the demand side, the target market for the reserve area is local refining and chemical enterprises in Liaoning Province, with strong local consumption capacity. Other surrounding refineries such as Huajin, Beili, and Liaohe Petrochemical have a refining capacity of about 13.3 million tons/year, and the total crude oil processing capacity of CNPC Jinxi Petrochemical and Jinzhou Petrochemical is about 13.5 million tons/year, which is expected to guarantee the company's product sales. After the crude oil reserve project is put into operation, it is expected that the company's raw material supply guarantee will be enhanced.
Profit forecast, valuation and rating: The company's profitability declined due to the narrowing of the price spread of main products, so we lowered the company's profit forecast for 2023-2025. We expect the company's net profit for 2023-2025 to be 0.25 (95% reduction) /5.12 (22% reduction) /6.78 billion yuan (9% reduction), respectively, equivalent to 0.02/0.32/0.42 yuan for EPS. Consumption of refined oil products continues to recover, and profits in the company's refining sector are expected to pick up. In addition, the company's Saudi Aramco refining and chemical integration project continues to advance. We continue to be optimistic about the company's future development and still maintain the company's “buy” rating.
Risk warning: There is a risk of fluctuations in raw material prices, and the risk that the progress of investment in additional production capacity falls short of expectations.
