China Merchants Port (0144.HK): Throughput growth is slowing down, high port profit levels have declined

華泰證券 · Aug 31, 2023 13:36

吞吐量增速放缓，来自集运公司投资收益同比大幅下滑拖累公司盈利招商局港口发布中期业绩：1）营业收入同比下滑10.8%至58.1 亿港币；2）归母净利33.5 亿港币，同比下滑30.5%；3）完成集装箱/散货吞吐量6,650万标准箱/2.7 亿吨，同比表现+0.3%/+0.2%。上半年海外需求较疲软，拖累华南地区制造业出口，公司港口吞吐量增速较缓。下半年，我们认为伴随季节性旺季，出口需求有望环比改善，带动公司港口吞吐量环比上行，收入及利润环比向好。考虑公司港口业务与全球宏观经济具有强相关性，我们下调23/24/25 年净利预测10%/11%/10%至74.2 亿/82.1 亿/91.4 亿港币；基于6.8x 2023E PE（公司历史三年PE 均值加1 个标准差，估值溢价主因吞吐量有望边际改善，公司海外业务具备盈利弹性），下调目标价13%至12.2 港币，维持“买入”。

集装箱吞吐量受珠三角地区拖累，收入受到汇兑影响1H23 公司完成集装箱吞吐量6,650 万标准箱，同比增长0.3%（2022 年：

1.1%）。分区域看，珠三角（PRD）/长三角（YRD）/环渤海（Bohai Rim）/中国其他地区/海外吞吐量同比表现-12.9/+3.6/+8.9/-11.9/-2.1%。公司吞吐量增速较缓主因珠三角地区受外需下行影响较大，其中深西母港吞吐量同比下滑7.6%，拖累区域以及公司整体吞吐量增速。收入端，珠三角/长三角/环渤海/中国其他地区/海外收入分别同比-22.5/-34.5/-4.9/-4.0/+4.8%，主因吞吐量增速较缓叠加人民币汇率波动影响。

利润率表现亮眼，投资收益下滑

1H23 公司港口业务实现EBIT/EBITDA 20.8 亿/31.8 亿港币，同比下滑20.6%/15.2%；EBIT/EBITDA 利润率分别为38.5%/58.9%（2022 年：

35.6%/54.4%）。上半年港口业务量规模下行拖累利润，但受益于港口装卸费率提升，公司利润率表现较好。联营及合营港口方面，1H23 实现投资收益28.4 亿港币，同比下滑41.7%。其中，珠三角地区投资收益同比下滑58.1%，主因香港港口吞吐量影响；长三角地区投资收益同比下滑33.6%，主因上港集团下属集运公司利润大幅下挫。

海外业务经营较好，看好公司持续扩大全球港口布局7 月，公司完成港口集装箱吞吐量1,213 万标准箱，同比增长0.7%，增速改善。下半年，受益于出口需求边际改善以及港口行业的季节性特征，我们认为公司业务量有望实现环比增长。我们预计公司23 全年完成集装箱吞吐量同比增长2.9%至1.4 亿标准箱，其中2H23 同比/环比增长5.4%/11.3%。

风险提示：1）全球经济衰退；2）港口吞吐量增长低于我们的预期；3）投资收益低于我们的预期；4）地缘政治风险。

The slowdown in throughput growth came from a sharp year-on-year decline in the investment income of the shipping company, which dragged down the company's profits; China Merchants Port released interim results: 1) Operating revenue fell 10.8% year on year to HK$5.8.1 billion; 2) Net profit returned to HK$3.35 billion, down 30.5% year on year; 3) completed container/bulk throughput of 66.5 million TEUs /270 million tons, with a year-on-year performance of +0.3%/+0.2%. Overseas demand was weak in the first half of the year, dragging down manufacturing exports in South China, and the growth rate of the company's port throughput was slow. In the second half of the year, we believe that with the seasonal peak season, export demand is expected to improve month-on-month, driving the company's port throughput to rise month-on-month, and revenue and profit to improve month-on-month. Considering that the company's port business is strongly correlated with the global macroeconomy, we lowered our 23/24/25 net profit forecast by 10%/11%/10% to 7.42 billion/8.21 billion/HK$9.14 billion; based on 6.8x 2023E PE (average PE value in the company's three-year history plus 1 standard deviation, valuation premium is expected to improve marginally, throughput is expected to improve marginally, and the company's overseas business has profit elasticity), we lowered the target price by 13% to HK$12.2 to maintain “buying”.

Container throughput was dragged down by the Pearl River Delta region, and revenue was affected by foreign exchange. 1H23 completed a container throughput of 66.5 million TEUs, an increase of 0.3% over the previous year (2022:

1.1%). Looking at the subregion, the Pearl River Delta (PRD) /Yangtze River Delta (YRD) /Bohai Rim (Bohai Rim) /Rest of China/Overseas Throughput Performance was -12.9/+3.6/+8.9/-11.9/ -2.1% year-on-year. The slow growth rate of the company's throughput is mainly due to the fact that the Pearl River Delta region was greatly affected by the decline in external demand. Among them, the throughput of the Shenzhen West Home Port fell 7.6% year on year, dragging down the region and the company's overall throughput growth rate. On the revenue side, the Pearl River Delta/the Yangtze Delta/Bohai Rim and the rest of China/overseas revenue was -22.5/-34.5/-4.9/-4.0/ +4.8% year on year, mainly due to slow throughput growth combined with the impact of fluctuations in the RMB exchange rate.

Profit margin performance is impressive, and investment returns are declining

1H23's port business achieved EBIT/EBITDA of 2.08 billion/HK$3.18 billion, a year-on-year decline of 20.6%/15.2%; EBIT/EBITDA profit margins were 38.5%/58.9%, respectively (2022:

35.6%/54.4%) The decline in port business volume in the first half of the year dragged down profits, but benefiting from the increase in port handling rates, the company's profit margin performance was relatively good. In terms of joint ventures and joint venture ports, 1H23 achieved investment income of HK$2.84 billion, a year-on-year decline of 41.7%. Among them, investment income in the Pearl River Delta region fell 58.1% year on year, mainly due to the impact of Hong Kong port throughput; investment income in the Yangtze River Delta region fell 33.6% year on year, mainly due to a sharp drop in profits of shipping companies under the SIPG Group.

Overseas business operations are relatively good. We are optimistic that the company will continue to expand its global port layout. In July, the company completed a port container throughput of 12.13 million TEUs, an increase of 0.7% over the previous year, and an improvement in growth rate. In the second half of the year, benefiting from marginal improvements in export demand and the seasonal characteristics of the port industry, we believe the company's business volume is expected to grow month-on-month. We expect the company to complete a 2.9% year-on-year increase in container throughput to 140 million TEUs for the full year 23, of which 2H23 increased 5.4%/11.3% year-on-year.

Risk Alerts: 1) Global Economic Recession; 2) Port Throughput Growth Fewer Than We Expected; 3) Investment Returns Lower Than We Expected; 4) Geopolitical Risks.

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招商局港口(0144.HK)：吞吐量增速放缓 港口盈利高位回落

China Merchants Port (0144.HK): Throughput growth is slowing down, high port profit levels have declined

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招商局港口(0144.HK)：吞吐量增速放缓港口盈利高位回落