GREENTOWN SERVICE(2869.HK)1H23 RESULTS IN-LINE VISIBLE RECOVERY IN OWNER VAS
GREENTOWN SERVICE(2869.HK)1H23 RESULTS IN-LINE VISIBLE RECOVERY IN OWNER VAS
Greentown Service's core operating profit/revenue both went up 20% YoY in 1H23, in-line with the market expectation. GP margin declined 0.6 ppts to 18.7% but hedged by improving SG&A fee rate (-0.6 ppts to 10.0%). We saw visible recovery on home living services, housing brokerage and education services which will be proved to be a good VAS exploration in our view. The operating cash flow improved by active ARs mgmt. and will cover 1x NP in FY23E according to the Company. We like the Company for its high independence, stable parentco., good progress on VAS exploration and recovering cash flow. Maintain BUY
綠城服務的核心營業利潤/收入在23年上半年均同比增長20％，符合市場預期。全科醫生利潤率下降0.6個百分點至18.7％，但通過提高銷售和收購費率進行套期保值（-0.6個百分點至10.0％）。我們看到家庭生活服務、住房經紀和教育服務明顯復甦，在我們看來，這將被證明是一項不錯的增值稅探索。據該公司稱，活躍的ARmgmt改善了運營現金流，並將彌補FY23E 中的1倍淨收入。我們喜歡該公司，因爲它具有高度的獨立性，穩定的母公司，在增值稅探索和恢復現金流方面取得了良好的進展。維持買入
1H23 earnings in-line with GPM declined but SG&A expense improved. Company delivered 20% YoY growth in both revenue and core operating profit in 1H23 (core operating profit= GP-SG&A), in-line with the market expectation. This was resulted from 1) the decline of GP margin to 18.7% in 1H23 from 19.2% in 1H22 on lower profitability from non-owner VAS given developers are cutting expenses. It is worth noting that Company kept no- decline in GPM for basic PM segment and improved that for community VAS business despite a difficult 1H. 2) Improvement of SG&A fee rate to 10.0% in 1H23 from 10.6% in 1H22 due to active organizational optimization. NP grew faster at 21.8% YoY to RMB 415mn as Company booked RMB 86mn in share results from JV (6.5x of that in 1H22). FY23E guidance was unchanged with core operating profit to grow 20-25% YoY and GPM at 16.5-17.5%.
2023年上半年收益與GPM持平，但銷售和收購支出有所改善。公司在23年上半年實現了收入和核心營業利潤同比增長20％（核心營業利潤=GP-SG&A），符合市場預期。這是由於 1) 由於開發商削減開支，非業主增值服務的盈利能力降低，GP利潤率從上半年的19.2％下降至23年上半年的18.7％。值得注意的是，儘管上半年困難重重，但公司基本項目經理細分市場的毛利率沒有下降，社區增值服務業務的毛利率有所改善。2) 由於積極的組織優化，銷售和收購費率從22年上半年的10.6％提高到23年上半年的10.0％。NP同比增長更快，爲21.8％，至4.15億元人民幣，原因是公司公佈了合資企業8,600萬元人民幣的股票業績（爲2022年上半年的6.5倍）。FY23E 的預期保持不變，核心營業利潤將同比增長20-25％，毛利潤爲16.5-17.5％。
Community VAS is showing visible recovery. Despite slow consumption recovery in 1H23, Greentown Services showed an apparent recovery in community VAS segment by reporting 26.5% YoY rev. growth 1H23 (vs. 18.7% in 1H22 and 9.1% in FY22) and 1.1ppts improvement in GPM ( to 24.3%). The improvements were mostly powered by 1) home living services, rev. +122.6% YoY in 1H23 vs.19.9% in 1H22 and 32.5% in FY22 boosted by an equity corporation on home care services and a breakthrough made in elderly care business, 2) Housing brokerage services rev. up 39.8% YoY in 1H23 vs. 4.4% in 1H22 driven by smart marketing models (encourage all residents to provide info. by giving certain commission), 3) education services that reduced losses by RMB 9.05mn in 1H23. The business will soon be proved a good VAS exploration in our view.
社區增值服務顯示出明顯的復甦。儘管23年上半年消費復甦緩慢，但綠城服務顯示出社區增值服務板塊明顯復甦，上半年同比增長26.5％（上半年爲18.7％，2022財年爲9.1％），GPM增長1.1個百分點（至24.3％）。改善主要得益於1) 家庭生活服務同比增長122.6％，而22年上半年爲.19.9％，22財年爲32.5％，這得益於一家家庭護理服務的股權公司和老年護理業務的突破；2）住房經紀服務同比增長39.8％，而在明智的營銷模式的推動下，22年上半年同比增長4.4％（鼓勵所有居民提供信息。佣金），3）教育服務業在23年上半年減少虧損905萬元人民幣。在我們看來，該業務很快就會被證明是一次不錯的增值稅探索。
Cash flow is improving on active AR mgmt. Company's cash flow from operations turned to positive at RMB 52mn in 1H23 from RMB -372mn in 1H22 due to its active management on historical ARs and collection rate.Company expects operating cash flow to cover 1x of NP in FY23E.
通過主動增強現實管理，現金流正在改善。由於積極管理歷史應收賬款和收款率，公司的運營現金流從上半年的-3.72億元人民幣轉爲正數，爲23年上半年的5200萬元人民幣。公司預計，在 FY23E 中，運營現金流將覆蓋淨收入的1倍。
Maintain BUY with TP unchanged at HK$ 5.93. We like the Company for its quality services with branding value, high independence, stable parentco, good progress on VAS exploration and recovering cash flow. Maintain BUY with TP unchanged at HK$5.93, reflecting 25x 2023E P/E. Catalysts: breakeven in education business, higher efficiency in AR mgmt. Risk: slower-than-expected third party expansion.
維持買入，目標價維持在5.93港元不變。我們喜歡該公司的優質服務，具有品牌價值、高度的獨立性、穩定的母公司、增值稅探索的良好進展和現金流的恢復。維持買入，目標價維持在5.93港元，反映2023年市盈率的25倍。催化劑：教育業務實現盈虧平衡，增強現實管理效率提高。風險：第三方擴張速度低於預期。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。