Event
The company announced its 23 semi-annual report on August 30 that 1H23 realized revenue of 43.773 billion yuan, + 14.87% year-on-year; net profit of 717 million yuan, + 10.08%; and non-return net profit of 858 million yuan, + 52.22% over the same period last year. 2Q23 realized revenue of 24.3 billion yuan, month-on-month ratio of + 24.79%, return-to-home net profit of 384 million yuan, month-on-month ratio of + 15.04%, non-return net profit of 533 million yuan, month-on-month ratio of + 64.22%.
Downstream demand gradually warmed up, copper processing profits increased month-on-month. 1Q23 was affected by weak market demand at home and abroad, the company's sales of copper processing products dropped slightly to 201500 tons, 2Q23 market demand picked up, the company sold copper processing products 243000 tons, month-on-month + 20.6% focus 1H23 sales of 444500 tons,-3.45% year-on-year. (1) the revenue of copper pipe products of 1H23 Company is 21.715 billion yuan,-2.75% compared with the same period last year, and the gross profit margin is 6.43%, which is 0.19% higher than that of 1Q23 6.24%. This is mainly due to the strong production and sales of downstream air conditioners since 2Q23 due to high temperature weather, and the utilization rate of copper tube capacity is low before and after high. (2) the revenue of 1H23 copper bar products is 2.674 billion yuan,-22.84% compared with the same period last year, and the gross profit margin is 6.95%, which is 0.52% lower than that of 7.47% of 1Q23.
(3) the income of 1H23 copper bar products is 964 million yuan, + 5.96% compared with the same period last year, and the gross profit margin is 1.72%, which is 0.31% higher than that of 1.41% of 1Q23. (4) the revenue of 1H23 copper foil products is 176 million yuan, and the gross profit margin is-1.42%, which is 2.07% lower than that of 0.65% of 1Q23. The main reason is that the first phase of Lanzhou 150000 ton copper foil project was completed at the end of May, and the cost of capacity climbing period is high. Overall, 2Q23 copper bars and copper bars are a drag on gross profit margin, but the overall gross profit margin of 1H23 copper processed products is 6.25%, 0.08 percentage points higher than 1Q23's 6.17%, and the profitability of copper processed products has increased month-on-month.
The net profit per ton is expected to continue to rise. The net profit per ton of the company's copper processing products 1Q23 is 1655.08 yuan, 2Q23 is 1578.79 yuan, month-on-month ratio is-4.59%, mainly due to changes in 2Q23 fair value loss from + 192.19% to 140 million yuan and investment income from-190.3% to-40 million yuan, which is a drag on profits. The fifth-generation continuous casting and rolling precision copper tube production line technology independently developed by the company can reduce the comprehensive cost per ton by 700 yuan. The planned product sales target for 23-25 years is 105 green 1.78 million tons respectively, and the compound growth rate of sales for 22-25 years will reach 27%. It is expected that with the reduction of production costs and the rapid growth of production and sales, the company's products are expected to meet the volume and profit rise.
The layout of copper foil has been gradually improved and the degree of business diversification has been enhanced. The first phase of 150000 tons of high-performance lithium copper foil was put into production at the end of May, the production and sales volume increased month by month, and the construction of the second phase of the project is being promoted. The company plans to build 100000 tons of high-performance electrolytic copper foil in Indonesia, and the project EIA has been completed in June. After it is completed and put into production, it can avoid the risk of international trade barriers and reduce tariffs and transportation costs on the basis of enhancing the company's business diversification.
It is estimated that the revenue of the company in 23-25 will be 839 Universe 126.2 billion yuan respectively, the net profit of return to the mother will be 16.54 million 2.76 trillion yuan, and the EPS will be 0.83 million 1.14 PE 1.70 yuan, respectively, and the corresponding PE will be 13.87 Universe 10.08 plus 6.78 times respectively. Maintain a "buy" rating.
Risk hint
The progress of the project is not as expected; the copper price fluctuates; the demand is not as expected; the RMB exchange rate fluctuates.