维持“增持”评级。2023H1公司实现营业收入195.99亿元，同比升9.75%；归母净利润314.09 万元，同比降98.57%，公司业绩略低于预期。考虑需求较弱，且成本端承压，下调23-25 年归母净利润预测为0.37/3.17/6.10亿元（ 原3.85/10.61/12.25 亿元）， 对应EPS 为0.02/0.13/0.25 元（ 原0.16/0.44/0.51 元）。参考可比公司，给予23 年0.9 倍PB 进行估值，下调目标价至3.43 元（原3.79 元），维持“增持”评级。This report is read as follows:
2023H1's performance was slightly lower than expected. The company's production increased, but weaker steel demand led to a fall in steel prices, superimposed raw material prices fell by a limited margin, and the company's profits continued to be under pressure. With the gradual pick-up in demand, corporate profits are still expected to pick up.
Main points of investment:
Maintain the "overweight" rating. 2023H1 achieved operating income of 19.599 billion yuan, up 9.75% from the same period last year; net profit from home was 3.1409 million yuan, down 98.57% from the same period last year, and the company's performance was slightly lower than expected. Considering the weak demand and the pressure on the cost side, the net profit of homing in 23-25 years is estimated to be 0.37max 3.17 / 610 million yuan (the original 3.85max 10.61pm 1.225 billion yuan), and the corresponding EPS is 0.02pm 0.13kg 0.25yuan (the original 0.16pm 0.44pm 0.51 yuan). Refer to the comparable company, give 23 years 0.9 times PB for valuation, lower the target price to 3.43 yuan (formerly 3.79 yuan), maintain the "overweight" rating.
2023H1 production continues to rise and profits continue to be under pressure. 2023H1's output of iron, steel and materials was 352.8, 428.4 and 4.303 million tons respectively, up 28%, 27% and 33% respectively over the same period last year. The company's output increased, but the weaker steel demand led to a decline in steel prices, and the decline in the price of superimposed raw materials was limited. The company's profit continued to be under pressure. 2023H1's gross profit per ton of steel was 117.57 yuan / ton, down 59% from the same period last year. With the gradual pick-up in demand, corporate profits are still expected to pick up.
Deep ploughing South China, East China market, high brand recognition. The company's main products include building materials, industrial wire rod, medium and heavy plate, special steel four series, 2023H1 revenue accounted for 37%, 21%, 16%, 9% respectively. Among them, the company's building materials products deeply plough the South China market, the brand recognition is high; the wire rod is mainly in the South and East China market, the market development continues to deepen, and the brand is gradually recognized; although the scale of the medium and thick plate is not large and the variety and specifications need to be optimized, however, it still has a certain market competitiveness in terms of quality, service and brand; the downstream industry of special steel is strong in the north and weak in the south, and the company is slightly weaker in terms of location advantages.
The company is located in the net inflow area of steel and enjoys the advantage of location. According to the company's announcement, the annual steel demand in Guangdong Province is more than 60 million tons, but the output is less than 40 million tons, resulting in an annual shortfall of more than 20 million tons.
As a leading steel enterprise in Guangdong Province, the company enjoys certain regional market advantages.
Risk hint: raw material prices have risen sharply; demand has rebounded less than expected.