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中南股份(000717)半年报业绩点评:产销规模提升 盈利短期承压

Zhongnan Co., Ltd. (000717) Semi-Annual Report Performance Review: Increased Production and Sales Scale, and Short-term Profit Under Pressure

國泰君安國際 ·  Aug 30, 2023 21:26

This report is read as follows:

2023H1's performance was slightly lower than expected. The company's production increased, but weaker steel demand led to a fall in steel prices, superimposed raw material prices fell by a limited margin, and the company's profits continued to be under pressure. With the gradual pick-up in demand, corporate profits are still expected to pick up.

Main points of investment:

Maintain the "overweight" rating. 2023H1 achieved operating income of 19.599 billion yuan, up 9.75% from the same period last year; net profit from home was 3.1409 million yuan, down 98.57% from the same period last year, and the company's performance was slightly lower than expected. Considering the weak demand and the pressure on the cost side, the net profit of homing in 23-25 years is estimated to be 0.37max 3.17 / 610 million yuan (the original 3.85max 10.61pm 1.225 billion yuan), and the corresponding EPS is 0.02pm 0.13kg 0.25yuan (the original 0.16pm 0.44pm 0.51 yuan). Refer to the comparable company, give 23 years 0.9 times PB for valuation, lower the target price to 3.43 yuan (formerly 3.79 yuan), maintain the "overweight" rating.

2023H1 production continues to rise and profits continue to be under pressure. 2023H1's output of iron, steel and materials was 352.8, 428.4 and 4.303 million tons respectively, up 28%, 27% and 33% respectively over the same period last year. The company's output increased, but the weaker steel demand led to a decline in steel prices, and the decline in the price of superimposed raw materials was limited. The company's profit continued to be under pressure. 2023H1's gross profit per ton of steel was 117.57 yuan / ton, down 59% from the same period last year. With the gradual pick-up in demand, corporate profits are still expected to pick up.

Deep ploughing South China, East China market, high brand recognition. The company's main products include building materials, industrial wire rod, medium and heavy plate, special steel four series, 2023H1 revenue accounted for 37%, 21%, 16%, 9% respectively. Among them, the company's building materials products deeply plough the South China market, the brand recognition is high; the wire rod is mainly in the South and East China market, the market development continues to deepen, and the brand is gradually recognized; although the scale of the medium and thick plate is not large and the variety and specifications need to be optimized, however, it still has a certain market competitiveness in terms of quality, service and brand; the downstream industry of special steel is strong in the north and weak in the south, and the company is slightly weaker in terms of location advantages.

The company is located in the net inflow area of steel and enjoys the advantage of location. According to the company's announcement, the annual steel demand in Guangdong Province is more than 60 million tons, but the output is less than 40 million tons, resulting in an annual shortfall of more than 20 million tons.

As a leading steel enterprise in Guangdong Province, the company enjoys certain regional market advantages.

Risk hint: raw material prices have risen sharply; demand has rebounded less than expected.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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