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中信出版(300788):主业逆势增长 AI智慧阅读值得期待

CITIC Publishing (300788): The main business is growing against the trend, and AI smart reading is worth looking forward to

華泰證券 ·  Aug 25, 2023 00:00

The net profit of 23H1 was 91 million yuan, up 1.35%.

The company released semi-annual report, 23H1 revenue of 873 million yuan (yoy+2.92%), return to the mother net profit of 90.85 million yuan (yoy+1.35%), deducted non-net profit of 89.47 million yuan (yoy+1.03%). Among them, Q2 realized revenue of 446 million yuan (yoy+2.18%,qoq+4.49%) and net profit of 48.81 million yuan (yoy+0.32%,qoq+16.13%). We maintain a 23-25 profit forecast of 2.39, 266, 000 and $1.55 for EPS. Using the comparable company valuation method, the 23-year comparable company Wind unanimously expected PE 14X, in which the new classics and the company are both published by the public, which is relatively more comparable. 23-year neo-classic Wind unanimously expected PE 18X, taking into account the leading market share of various categories, the real ocean share continued to increase, giving the company 23-year 27X PE, corresponding to the target price of 34.02 yuan (the previous value is 32.76 yuan), maintaining the "over-holding" rating.

23H1 outperformed the industry, mainly due to the improvement of market share, the improvement of operational efficiency and the high growth of vertical channels. The overall 23H1 book retail market fell by 2.41%, but the company's performance went against the trend. The main reasons are: 1) the company's foreign market share is 3.47%, which is the first place to increase 0.48pct compared with the same period last year; 2) the operation index is improved, and the efficiency of the company's foreign products is 5.03, which is 0.44 higher than the same period last year. The number of mobile sales increased by 7.3% compared with the same period last year, and the number of inventory turnover increased by 0.41%. 3) continue to expand content e-commerce channels, and 23H1's live broadcast per GMV increased by 329% compared with the same period last year.

The leading position of book publishing is stable, and the advantage of subdividing the track highlights the 23H1 book publishing and distribution business revenue of 688 million yuan, an increase of 3.25%, a gross profit margin of 34.08%, and a decline in 1.63pct. The slight decline in gross profit margin is expected to be affected by the expansion of content e-commerce channels. In terms of subdivision, the market share of 23H1 business management / children's / psychological self-help / biography books ranked first, and increased by 0.43 / 1.02 / 1.01 / 0.74pct respectively compared with the same period last year. In addition, the company and "China Qitan", "Changan 30,000 miles" and "Deep Sea" and other IP joint planning of a number of best-selling books, and actively layout derivatives business, promote literary and artistic animation strategy, is expected to open up revenue growth space.

The passenger flow of Citic Bookstore recovered significantly compared with the same period last year. AI Wisdom Reading created the second growth curve 23H1 cultural consumption business revenue of 229 million yuan, a drop of 0.22%, a gross profit margin of 29.36%, and an increase of 2.42pct, which is expected to benefit from the improvement of management efficiency and cost reduction. The passenger flow and ping-ping efficiency of Citic Bookstore are significantly higher than that of the same period last year, but there is still a gap compared with 2019. In terms of new technology, the company's first batch of AI-assisted publishing books are ready to be put on the market, and the AIGC Mathematical Intelligence Publishing Integrated tool platform has been opened for trial by the internal editing team, greatly improving work efficiency. Based on the AIGC application layer, the company creates a super content platform and knowledge service system based on the integration of digital platform, reader interaction and social embedding, forming the company's second growth curve.

Risk tips: macroeconomic pressure, fierce competition in the industry, and so on.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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