The company released its semi-annual report for 2023 on August 28, 2023. In the first half of the year, the company achieved revenue of 1.21 billion yuan, or -3.8% year-on-year. Net profit attributable to the mother was 100 million yuan, or -58.5%; net profit not attributable to the mother was 120 million yuan, or -49.3% year-on-year.
The company's performance has been repaired. On a quarterly basis, the 23Q2 company achieved revenue of 7.1 billion yuan in a single quarter, +14.6% year on year and +40.0% month on month. Net profit of 56.37 million yuan, -61.1% year-on-year, +27.2% month-on-month; net profit of non-homogenized income of 63.55 million yuan, -45.3% year-on-year, +6.0% month-on-month.
Comment:
Emphasis is placed on continuous breakthroughs in offshore wind power, and the progress of bearing localization continues to advance. Offshore fans are gradually becoming larger, and the 5-8 meter turntable diameter is difficult to meet future offshore wind power hoisting requirements. At the same time, the localization rate of bearing parts in China is low. Domestic bearings are mainly propeller bearings, and the value is low. Only a few manufacturers can produce spindle bearings and gearbox bearings. In the context of fan affordability, fan manufacturers have strong demand for cost reduction, and domestic replacement demand is strong.
The company has achieved localized replacement of some wind power products, and has also made important progress in high-power fan bearing products. The 1.5-16MW propeller and yaw bearings and high-power wind power yaw propeller bearings developed by the company were imported and replaced; 2-5MW three-row cylindrical roller spindle bearings, 3-6.25MW double row conical roller spindle bearings without soft belts and achieved mass production; 3-13MW single-row tapered roller bearings and achieved mass production; the company developed and produced 12MW offshore anti-typhoon-resistant spindle bearings, overcoming the technical problems of domestic high-power wind turbine bearings and successfully installed them; the company developed and produced roller bearings in small batches.
By business, the revenue of the locked market industry has increased. 23H1 wind power product revenue was 790 million yuan, -18.3% year on year, gross profit margin 25.1%, down 8.0 pct year on year; by industry, slewing bearing industry revenue was 930 million yuan, gross profit margin 27.0%, down 6.7 pct year on year; locked market revenue was 1.67 billion yuan, +33.0%, and gross profit margin was 21.9% year on year.
In terms of profitability, profits from the main business are steady, and low net interest rates are due to changes in fair value and credit impairment. 23H1 gross margin was 25.9%, -5.4 pct year on year, net margin was only 8.3%, and -10.9 pct year on year. It was mainly due to fair value changes in the first half of the year - 37 million yuan and credit impairment loss - 22 million yuan. Credit impairment was due to accounting for bad debts.
Profit forecast and investment rating: We expect the company's revenue for 2023-2025 to be 27.89, 35.16 billion yuan, and 4.47 billion yuan respectively, up 5.1%, 26.1%, and 27.1% year on year; return net profit is 324, 519 million, and 827 million yuan, respectively, up 2.5%, 60.0%, and 59.5% year on year. The current stock price corresponds to the 2023-2025 PE of 30.33, 18.95, and 11.88 times, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
Risk factors: Wind power construction is falling short of expectations, overseas expansion is falling short of expectations, etc.