After three quarters of adjustment period, 2023Q2 homing net profit became positive compared with the same period last year, looking forward to the release of the results of the new product volume Silver Capital, 2023H1 achieved an income of 1.332 billion yuan / yoy-6.95%, net profit of 269 million yuan / yoy-3.02%, deduction of 261 million yuan / yoy+5.07%. Among them, 2023Q2 realized income of 734 million yuan / yoy-4.08%, and net profit of 172 million yuan / yoy+11.87%, became regular year-on-year after three quarters of destocking and fee reduction, deducting non-return net profit of 167 million yuan / yoy+29.03%.
The net profit of 2023H1 excluding exchange gains is 220 million yuan / yoy-16.04%. Considering the optimization of the company's cost structure and the continuous improvement of profitability quarter by quarter, we raise our profit forecast. It is estimated that the net profit of homing in 2023-2025 is 5.48pm 6.59max 8.14 (the previous value is 5.1kg), yoy+22.0%/+20.4%/+23.4%, corresponds to EPS 1.30max 1.57max 1.93, and the current stock price corresponds to 12.6 times PE. Maintain a "buy" rating.
The profit margin of shipping and raw materials prices has continued to rise, and the net profit has benefited from the increase in foreign exchange earnings. 2023H1 gross profit margin 40.72%/yoy+2.27pct, net interest rate 20.2% 40.72%/yoy+2.27pct; 2023Q2 gross profit rate 41.22%/yoy+5.61pct/ + 1.12pct, net profit rate 23.38%/yoy+3.33pct/ + 7.08pct, net interest rate increased for four consecutive quarters. On the expense side, the 2023H1 sales / management / R & D / financial expense rates are 13.92%, 5.5%, 2.04%, 4.09%, respectively, year on year + 3.77/0.35/-0.21/-3.28pct. The increase in sales expense rate is mainly due to the decline in income and the increase in employee salary, and the decrease in financial expense rate is mainly due to the increase in exchange earnings. 2023H1 exchange income is 49.76 million yuan.
The reduction of shipping surcharge has led to short-term pressure on overseas income, a sharp domestic recovery, and a close grasp of intelligent opportunities by region. (1) 2023H1 overseas business income is 1.02 billion yuan / yoy-12.19%, revenue accounts for 92%, mainly due to the reduction in the sale price of the sea freight surcharge. The company reduced the previous shipping surcharge by 5% in August / October 2022 / January 2023, respectively, by 5%, 5%, 12%, and reduced the average price by about 22%. It has a great impact on the revenue side compared with the same period last year. (2) the domestic business income of 2023H1 is 130 million yuan / yoy+108.25%, benefiting from the domestic liberalization and the large opening of the catering industry, the domestic business has recovered greatly. From a product point of view, the revenue of 2023H1 commercial refrigeration equipment / buffet equipment / western kitchen equipment / maintenance accessories is-8.78% compared with the same period last year. Add "intelligent" development strategy, recruit high-quality talents to invest in research and development, and be optimistic about the company's new product volume and intelligent catering opportunities.
Risk tips: new product market promotion progress is not as expected; sea freight, raw material prices rise and so on.