Incidents:
The company published its 2023 annual report. At 2023H1, the company achieved total operating income of 3.71 billion yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.29%; realized net profit of 260 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 28.52%.
Comment:
Revenue from the glass business is growing steadily, and gross margin is under pressure due to the downturn in the cycle. 2023H1, the glass industry market is sluggish. According to the National Bureau of Statistics, 2023H1's national flat glass production was 469 million boxes by weight, down 9.1% year on year; according to information from the Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange, the average futures settlement price of 2023H1 glass active contract futures was 1,610 yuan/ton, down 16.5% from the previous year. The company faced the negative impact of the market environment, carried out excellent operating projects, minimized adverse effects, and maintained a high-end position on the marketing side. The 2023H1 glass business achieved revenue of 2.36 billion yuan, a year-on-year increase of 11.8%, a gross sales margin of 8.3%, a year-on-year decrease of 5.4 pct, and net profit of 3.47 million yuan.
The soda ash business operates steadily and contributes to major profits. According to information from the National Bureau of Statistics, 2023H1 China's soda ash production was 158.07 million tons, an increase of 6.4% over the previous year. The cumulative year-on-year production growth rate has slowed since April. The company's 2023H1 chemical sector achieved revenue of 1.99 billion yuan (inter-branch offset of 6.3 billion yuan), gross sales margin of 22.33%, and net profit of 278 million yuan (interdivision offset of 10.84 million yuan).
The competitive pattern of photovoltaic glass has improved, and the prospects for the company's TCO products are promising. According to statistics from the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, as of the end of 2022, China's total photovoltaic glass production capacity was 80,000 tons/day. As of the beginning of July 2023, the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass was about 90,000 tons/day, an increase of 7.14% over the beginning of the year, and the pace of production capacity growth has slowed down.
According to information from the China Building Glass and Industrial Glass Association, 2023H1 China's photovoltaic rolled glass production was 1,1565 million tons, an increase of 68.7% over the previous year. The company's photovoltaic glass business achieved rapid growth in 2023H1. The 600t/d thin film photovoltaic module glass production line (phase II) invested by Jinjing Technology Malaysia Co., Ltd. was successfully ignited in May 2023, and the product was successfully launched in the first half of the year; Ningxia Jinjing's 600 ton rolling continued to improve product production quality indicators, and TCO products continued to maintain a leading market share in domestic perovskite and cadmium telluride.
Maintain the “increase in holdings” rating. Considering that the glass industry's profit recovery is lagging behind previous expectations and lowering the profit forecast, the EPS from 2023 to 2025 is expected to be 0.31/0.37/0.42 yuan, and the corresponding PE is 22.75/19.54/16.95 times.
Risk warning: Downstream demand for architectural glass/TCO glass falls short of expectations, and company performance falls short of expectations