Description of the event
On the evening of August 28, 2023, Meirui New Materials released its semi-annual report for 2023. The company achieved revenue of 719 million yuan in the first half of the year, a year-on-year decrease of 9.37%; realized net profit of 51 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 7.79%. The company achieved revenue of 401 million yuan in the second quarter, a year-on-year decrease of 0.23% and an improvement of 26.10% over the previous year; realized net profit of 28 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 16.35%, and a year-on-year improvement of 16.67%.
Short-term pressure on TPU prices affected the gross profit margin. The 200,000 ton elastomer integration project contributed incrementally in the first half of 2023. Terminal consumption was weak and downstream demand was slow to follow up. According to Baichuan data, the TPU (shoe material) 2023Q2 price was 15,509 yuan/ton, down 4.78% from the previous month. The company's Q2 gross margin was 1487%, with a month-on-month change of 3.28 pct. At present, the price of TPU has stopped falling. In the future, demand for consumer electronics will recover, the completion of the real estate chain will be repaired, and the arrival of the gold, nine, and silver ten peak season is expected to break away from the current situation where demand is weak. It is expected that the application of TPU in the fields of films, footwear materials, pipelines, etc. will slowly pick up, and TPU prices are expected to gradually improve. The company's 200,000 ton elastomer integration project has now completed plant installation. In the future, as TPU production capacity increases, TPU's main business performance and ability to resist fluctuations in raw material prices will further improve.
The company's TPU structure continues to be optimized, and PUR+PBS rich product business structure The company's TPU business mainly promotes high-end and differentiation, and has obvious advantages in innovative R&D and market response. In particular, high-end TPUs such as expandable TPU and invisible car clothing are at the leading level in China. As of 2023H1, the company's 8000 ton expandable thermoplastic polyurethane elastomer project has progressed 90%, and the HDI that the company is currently laying out can also be used for high-end TPU production in the future, consolidating large-scale TPU business and product structure upgrades. In addition, the company is actively expanding its product range, and projects for environmentally friendly adhesives and degradable materials such as PUR, PUD, and PBS are progressing in an orderly manner. As the share of high-end TPU business gradually increases and the market promotion of new products, gross margin and profitability will continue to increase.
The polyurethane integration project is advancing at an accelerated pace, creating the company's second growth curve. The first phase of the company's polyurethane integration project has now completed the construction of some units and roads, and some equipment has been installed. It is expected to be put into operation in the first half of 2024. In the future, it is expected to become the first domestic manufacturer that also has HDI, CHDI, and PPDI production capacity. At the same time, intermediates such as p-phenylenediamine and cyclohexanediamine can be sold externally. Special isocyanates will complement the company's new high-performance polyurethane material products (such as the high-performance foam material ETPU, aliphatic ATPU, waterborne polyurethane PUD, etc.) to strengthen the degree of integration of upstream and downstream high-end materials. With the launch of the integrated polyurethane project, the company's performance and valuation will double.
With the polyurethane integration project put into operation, the company's performance is expected to grow rapidly from 2024. The company's net profit from 2023-2025 is expected to be 142, 378 million yuan, and 684 million yuan respectively, with year-on-year growth rates of 27.4%, 166.3%, and 81.2%, respectively. The current stock price corresponds to 45, 17, and 9 times PE, respectively, maintaining the “buy” rating.
(1) The risk that project construction progress falls short of expectations;
(2) The risk that project approval progress falls short of expectations;
(3) The risk of large fluctuations in raw material prices;
(4) The risk of a sharp drop in product prices.