Incidents:
The company released its semi-annual report for 2023. 23H1 achieved revenue of 236 million yuan, or -53.95% year-on-year; realized net profit of 20 million yuan, -90.24% year-on-year, and realized net profit of non-attributable net profit of -02 billion yuan, -101.14% year-on-year. Of these, 23Q2 achieved revenue of 123 million yuan, or -23.63% year-on-year, net profit of 0.09 billion yuan, or -82.05% of the same period, and net profit of non-attributable net profit of -05 billion yuan, or -110.67% of the same period.
Oversupply of additives puts pressure on performance
The company's performance in the first half of the year was under pressure, mainly due to the gradual release of new production capacity in the industry, oversupply of additive products, a gradual slowdown in market growth, and a significant year-on-year decline in product prices. As a result, sales volume of the company's main products, VC and FEC, increased by 48.39%, resulting in a serious decline in revenue and net profit. The company's gross margin for the first half of the year was 17.27%, -43.15 pct, net profit margin was 6.51% year on year, -32.45 pct year on year, and the cost ratio for the period was 19.57%, +4.95 pct.
Accelerate the expansion of new products, and the product structure is expected to be optimized
With its own experience in the field of new energy, the company seizes the opportunities for rapid development of anode materials, accelerates the construction of a low-energy, high-performance lithium battery anode material project with an annual output of 200,000 tons, enhances technical level, provides customers with cost-effective and high-value-added products, expands the company's product sequence, and enhances the company's competitiveness. In addition, the company's 80,000-ton vinyl chloride carbonate (phase I 40,000 tons) and 3,000-ton lithium bifluorosulfonimide project (phase I, 500 tons) are progressing steadily. With the implementation of anode materials and lithium salt products, the company's product structure is expected to be optimized.
Customers are rich in resources and continue to invest in R&D
The company provides product support services to manufacturers in the lithium battery industry chain such as Mitsubishi Chemical, BYD, Tianci Materials, Cathay Pacific, Enchem, Shanshan Co., Ltd., Kunlun New Materials, and Zhuhai Saiwei, and has signed long-term supply agreements with Ningde Times, BYD, and Tianci Materials, and maintains good cooperative relationships with mainstream downstream customers. The company obtained 11 new intellectual property rights in the first half of the year, including 10 invention patents and 1 utility model. The company's continued investment in R&D is expected to help the company maintain competitiveness in the industry.
Profit Forecasts, Valuations, and Ratings
Considering the short-term oversupply of additive products, we expect the company's revenue for 2023-2025 to be 532/916/2.139 billion yuan respectively (the original value in 23/24 was 1,670/3.815 billion yuan), the year-on-year growth rate was -38.26%/72.05%/133.62%, respectively, and net profit of 0.52/0.96/215 million yuan (the original value in 23/24 was 3660/728 million yuan). The year-on-year growth rate was -80.14%/85.13%/ 124.45%, EPS is 0.32/0.60/1.35 yuan/share, and corresponding PE is 102.0/55.1/24.6 times, respectively. Continued attention is recommended.
Risk warning: Production capacity investment falls short of expectations, risk of raw material price fluctuations, and increased risk of industry competition.