The company's net profit has increased significantly. In the first half of 2023, the company achieved operating income of about 746 million yuan, an increase of 4.74% over the previous year, and net profit to the mother was about 68.65 million yuan, an increase of 66.30% over the previous year. The company did not have any new projects put into operation in the first half of the year, fixed costs were stable, and variable costs were lower than revenue growth, which is the main reason for the significant increase in net profit. Based on the situation in the first half of the year, we expect that the company will likely maintain a single-digit revenue growth rate throughout the year, with a net interest rate of around 9%.
In the first half of 2023, the company achieved an EBITDA of about 526 million yuan, an increase of 7.40% over the previous year, and an EBITDA rate of 70.5%. We expect it to remain at this level throughout the year.
The pace of the company's investment in new projects is slowing down. Judging from the semi-annual report, the company's three new projects (Hebei Huailai, Langfang, and Shanghai Minhang) are progressing slowly, which should be related to the company's initiative to slow down the pace. Currently, the IDC industry as a whole has not reached an inflection point, there are few new phenomenal applications, and the large-scale commercialization of AIGC takes time to cultivate, and the relationship between supply and demand has not improved significantly. However, we are optimistic about industry improvements over the next 1 to 2 years. Increased company listing rates and 24+ terms are effective guarantees of reasonable revenue growth and profitability.
Investment advice. We selected 7 representative data center operators, 2 in the US and 5 in China. The average EV/EBITDA in 2023 was 15 times, and the average enterprise multiplier for the two US companies was 22 times. Data Port's 22-25 revenue CAGR was 11.3%, and 22-25 EBITDA CAGR was 11.4%.
We predict that the company's revenue for 2023-2025 will be 15.57 (-2.7%) /17.44 (-5.2%) /20.06 (-0.9%), respectively, and EBITDA for 2023-2025 will be 11.06 (-0.09%) /12.33 (-2%) /14.23 (+3.6%), respectively.
The company's comprehensive scale (operating scale and investment and construction scale) is currently at the forefront of the industry, and its profitability is strong. Referring to the average value of comparable companies, we gave the data port 15 times EV/EBITDA in 2023, then the corresponding target market value was RMB 14.587 (-1.7%). Based on total share capital of 460.5 million yuan (originally total share capital of 3289.3 million), then the target price was RMB 31.68 per share (-29.8%), maintaining the “superior to market” rating.
Risk warning. The company's diversified development fell short of expectations, and the demand side of a single major customer slowed down, affecting the company's revenue growth rate, which in turn affected the company's EBITDA; the company's new project customer development fell short of expectations, affecting future revenue growth.