SENSETIME(20.HK):ONLY GENERATIVE AI MATTERS
SENSETIME(20.HK):ONLY GENERATIVE AI MATTERS
Another bad set of interim results was reported by SenseTime with flat YoY revenues and heavy net losses of RMB3.1bn. However, GenAI related and AIDC revenues accounted for over 20% of sales driven by booming enterprise GenAI demand. The race for the throne of China's GPT-4 and Midjourney is still ongoing and SenseTime is competing with huge resources including capital, data, knowhow and computational capacity. We believe investors should mainly focus on Company's progress of GenAI base model SenseNova and relevant chatbot, digital human or text to image model suites while traditional AI business should be written off in terms of valuation. We maintain our HOLD rating for now and key stock catalyst will be SenseTime's GenAI competitiveness among all peers in upcoming beta tests. We lower our TP from HK$2.85 to HK$1.75 based on 7.5x 2024E EV/Sales.
商湯科技公佈了另一組糟糕的中期業績，收入同比持平，淨虧損高達31億元人民幣。但是，在企業GenAI需求激增的推動下，與GenAI相關的收入和AIDC收入佔銷售額的20％以上。中國 GPT-4 和 Midjourney 的王位爭奪仍在進行中，商湯科技正在與包括資本、數據、專業知識和計算能力在內的巨大資源競爭。我們認爲，投資者應主要關注公司在GenAI基礎模型SenseNova和相關的聊天機器人、數字人或文本到圖像模型套件方面的進展，而傳統的人工智能業務應在估值方面註銷。我們目前維持持有評級，在即將到來的beta測試中，關鍵股票催化劑將是商湯科技在所有同行中GenAI的競爭力。根據2024E電動汽車/銷售額的7.5倍，我們將目標價從2.85港元下調至1.75港元。
Key Factors for Rating
評級的關鍵因素
1H23 result reviews: Revenue was flat YoY at RMB1.4bn, below BOCIe/consensus by 23%/31%. GPM decreased 21ppts YoY to 45.3% with OPM down 3ppts YoY to -164% due to higher revenue mix related to lower margin hardware and AIDC. Net loss was another massive miss at RMB3.1bn.
23年上半年業績回顧：收入同比持平，爲14億元人民幣，低於Bocie/Consension的23％/31％。GPM同比下降21個百分點至45.3％，其中OPM同比下降3個百分點至-164％，這是由於硬件和AIDC利潤率降低導致收入組合增加。淨虧損再次出現巨額虧損，爲31億元人民幣。
Only GenAI matters now: SenseTime decides to do its best to become China's SOTA LLM and text-to-image AI with its "SenseNova" foundation Model Sets and relevant model suites. In 1H23, generative AI related revenue recorded a YoY growth of 670.4%, and its contribution to the Group's business rapidly increased from 10.4% in 2022 to 20.3%. Management targets to generate over 40% sales from GenAI by 2025. In other words, we believe Company's current business segments (Business, City, Life and Auto) will be completely reshaped by the ever-growing GenAI.
現在只有GenAi很重要：商湯科技決定憑藉其 “SenseNova” 基礎模型集和相關的模型套件，盡最大努力成爲中國的SOTA LLM和文字轉圖像人工智能。23年上半年，生成人工智能相關收入同比增長670.4％，其對集團業務的貢獻從2022年的10.4％迅速增長至20.3％。管理層的目標是到2025年，GenAI的銷售額將超過40％。換句話說，我們相信不斷增長的GenAI將徹底重塑公司當前的業務領域（商業、城市、生活和汽車）。
China's largest AI infrastructure: SenseCore increased the number of GPUs from 27k in 1Q23 to approximately 30k in 2Q23. The computational capacity scaled from 5 ExaFLOPS in 2H22 to 6 ExaFLOPS in 1H23 and 10 ExaFLOPS based on current GPU purchase orders placed. In data collection, SenseTime has a monthly output of around 2tn high-quality tokens and targets to accumulate 10tn by 4Q23 (the training of GPT-4 used 13tn tokens) to support the training of its latest 100bn parameter base models.
中國最大的人工智能基礎設施：SenseCore將GPU的數量從23年第一季度的2.7萬個增加到23年第二季度的約3萬個。根據當前下達的GPU採購訂單，計算能力從22年下半年的5個exaFlops擴展到23年上半年的6個exaFlops和10個exaFlops。在數據收集方面，商湯科技的月產量約爲2萬億枚高質量代幣，目標是到23年第四季度累積10萬億（GPT-4 的訓練使用了13萬億個代幣），以支持其最新的1000億個參數基礎模型的訓練。
Key Risks for Rating
評級的主要風險
Potential breakthrough of SenseTime's large model; operating loss narrows faster than our forecasts; change in access to Nvidia GPU.
商湯科技的大型機型有可能取得突破；營業虧損的縮小速度快於我們的預期；Nvidia GPU的訪問權限發生了變化。
譯文內容由第三人軟體翻譯。