23H1 income / homecoming net profit compared with the same period last year-9.5% pesque 7.9%, maintaining "buy"

On August 28, Lei Zhi Group released 23 mid-year report: 23H1 realized income / net profit of returning home / deducted net profit of 1.82 billion yuan, 9.5%, 7.9%, 7.4%, slightly lower than our previous forecast of net profit of returning home (127 million yuan). 23Q2 realized income / return net profit / deducted non-return net profit of 1.04 billion yuan, which was-7.9%, 4.1% and 0.7% compared with the same period last year. Taking into account the limited recovery of downstream real estate demand, but the easing of cost-side pressure, we downgrade the company's revenue growth forecast for 23-25, the revenue for 23-25 is expected to be 100 million yuan in 42-48-56 (the previous figure is 49-57-66 billion yuan), and the net profit forecast for home return is 2.8 billion yuan. Comparable company 23-year Wind consensus expected average 18xPE, taking into account the company's continued expansion of production capacity, some areas continue to increase share, given 23-year 21xPE, the target price of 8.32 yuan, to maintain the "buy".

23H1's main business revenue fell, gross profit margin improved compared with the same period last year

23H1 company admixture new materials / technical services / building materials wholesale revenue of 10.9 picks 1.9 / 330 million yuan respectively, year-on-year-7.1% Universe 18.2% Universe 42.0%. 23H1's gross profit margin is 20.7%, year-on-year + 0.5pct, in which the gross profit margin of admixture new materials / technical services / building materials wholesale is 24.7%, 34.4% and 3.1%, year-on-year + 4.5/-4.3/-1.3pct, or mainly due to the relief of additive cost-side pressure, the quarterly average price of 23Q2 ethylene oxide is-19.2% compared with the same period last year. 23Q2 gross profit margin is 21.1%, year-on-year + 0.7pct, month-on-month + 0.9pct.

In addition, the income of East China / South Central / Southwest China, which is the main revenue region of 23H1, is 8.3 million, which is-12.4%, 0.6% and 12.7% compared with the same period last year.

The expense rate during the 23H1 period increased compared with the same period last year, and the operating net cash flow decreased the expense rate during the 23H1 period by 13.5%, compared with the same period last year, with a sales / management / R & D / financial expense rate of 4.8%, 3.8%, 4.4%, 0.4%, and + 0.7/+0.4/+0.4/+0.02pct. 23H1 net interest rate / deduction non-return net interest rate is 6.9%, 6.4%, year-on-year + 0.1/+0.1pct; 23Q2 is 7.4%, + 7.1%, year-on-year + 0.3/+0.5pct. 23H1's asset-liability ratio / interest-bearing debt ratio is 40.4% and 6.6%, year-on-year-5.8/-3.0pct. 23H1's operating net cash flow was 60 million yuan,-57.0% year-on-year, mainly due to a decrease in sales rebates; 23Q2's operating net cash flow was 130 million yuan,-10.8% year-on-year.

With the gradual release of new production capacity and the continuous improvement of the market share of new admixtures, the company's "High performance concrete Additive production Base Project (Phase I)" was officially put into operation at the end of 22 and is still in the production capacity climbing stage. Adhering to the principle of "market first", the company will further increase its market share with the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta and Southwest as its core development areas, driven by the release of new production capacity in Zhejiang, Chongqing, Sichuan, Yunnan and Anhui. At present, the company ranks first in market share in Fujian, Guizhou, Chongqing, Hainan, Shaanxi and Shanghai, among which Fujian and Hainan have a market share of more than 30%.

In addition, in response to the national "Belt and Road Initiative" development strategy, taking Southeast Asia as the starting point, the company has set up a synthetic production line of concrete admixtures in Laos to radiate markets such as Laos, Vietnam and Thailand.

Risk hint: the price of raw materials rose higher than expected, and the cash flow of the admixture business deteriorated.