occurrences
Mingzhi Electric released the 2023 semi-annual report: 2023H1 achieved operating income of 1,306 million yuan, an increase of 3.02% over the previous year; realized net profit of 53 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 24.4%.
Key points of investment
2023H1 is in a transition period of production capacity, and short-term performance is under pressure
2023H1, the company achieved revenue of 1,306 million yuan, up 3.02% year on year, of which overseas business achieved revenue of 667 million yuan, up 10.43% year on year; realized net profit of 53 million yuan, down 24.4% year on year, mainly due to the opening of the Taicang and Vietnam bases+the relocation of the original factory, which led to an increase in manufacturing costs. At the same time, the actual output of the Taicang base had not yet reached the design capacity; gross margin was 36.70%, down 1.79pct; net interest rate was 4.12%, down 1.45 pct; sales/management/development/finance expenses The rates changed year over year -0.8/-0.8/+1.07/+0.25 pct, respectively.
At 2023Q2, the company achieved revenue of 656 million yuan, up 10.89% year on year and 1.04% month on month; realized net profit of 21 million yuan, down 33.59% year on year and 35.99% month on month; gross margin was 34.79%, and net interest rate was 3.23%.
At present, the company's Taicang base has been moved in, and production capacity is being released smoothly according to the plan; the Vietnam base has been renovated and put into mass trial production. It is expected that the 2023H2 company is still in the production capacity transition stage, and the gradual increase in new production capacity is expected to support the company's annual performance next year.
Traditional downstream drag, emerging high value-added fields continue to grow
2023H1, the company's revenue for motor control and its driving systems/power and lighting system control products/equipment status management system products/trade products changed +6.62%/+3.95%/-0.48%/-13.40%, respectively. Sales volume in each sector changed -3.31%/-26.48%/+20.00%/-34.80%, respectively. By application scenario, revenue from traditional downstream applications (medical equipment and biochemical laboratory instruments, stage lighting, textile machinery, security equipment, etc.) fell about 6% year on year, but revenue from emerging high value-added fields still achieved positive year-on-year growth. Revenue from industrial and factory automation/photovoltaic equipment/mobile robots/smart cars/smart cars/intelligent pump and valve control increased 12%/80%/33%/144%/31% year on year, respectively.
2023H1. The company's control motor and drive system business accounted for 82% of total revenue, achieving revenue of 1,073 million yuan, an increase of 6.62% over the previous year. In particular, it maintained rapid growth in emerging high-value-added fields. By product, 1) revenue from the control motor business was 659 million yuan, up 1% year on year, of which the hollow cup motor business increased 67% year on year, mainly due to capacity release and growth in the fields of mobile robots, medical devices, and biochemical analysis instruments; 2) motion control solution revenue was 348 million yuan, up 12% year on year, of which the servo system business increased 62% year on year, mainly due to growth in photovoltaic processing equipment and industrial automation; 3) precision transmission system business (motor+screw integrated products) revenue was 44 million yuan, up 29% year on year.
The humanoid robot industry is gradually becoming a trend, and the hollow cup motor business is worth looking forward to
Electronic motor control is one of the core aspects of humanoid robots. As trends in the humanoid robot industry gradually develop, demand for motors is expected to be boosted. At present, there is a basic consensus that smart robots use a hollow cup motor scheme. In the future, with the industrialization of humanoid robots, a large amount of demand for hollow cup motors is expected to be released. The company has a first-mover advantage for hollow cup motor products, and focuses on the development and manufacture of control motor modules used in palm/finger modules for mobile robots. At present, the company has received attention and cooperation intentions from leading companies in the field of humanoid robots. The company has submitted a full set of technical solutions and prototypes to customers for testing and verification of reliability and practical applications.
Profit forecasting
The company's revenue for 2023-2025 is estimated to be 33.20, 40.81, and 5.539 billion yuan, respectively, EPS of 0.60, 0.92, and 1.40 yuan respectively, and the current stock price corresponding to PE 90.0, 58.5, and 38.3 times, respectively. Optimistic about the company's hollow cup motor business benefiting from humanoid robot industry trends, covered it for the first time, and gave it a “buy” investment rating.
Risk warning
Demand falls short of expected risks; humanoid robot industrialization falls short of expected risks; risk of humanoid robot technology route change; risk of falling gross margin; risk of rising raw material prices; risk of falling short of expectations in production capacity expansion; risk of falling short of expectations; general market systemic risk.