Event: the company released the 2023 semi-annual report, 23H1 achieved revenue of 6.211 billion yuan, year-on-year-4.7%; return-81 million yuan, year-on-year-302.5%; deduction of non-return net profit-81 million yuan, year-on-year-293.1%. From a quarterly point of view, 23Q2 achieved revenue of 2.124 billion yuan,-18.7% compared with the same period last year, net profit of-409 million yuan, 535.8% of the same period last year, and net profit of-409 million yuan, 552.8% of the same period last year.
Revenue end: the 23Q2 liquor business is under pressure in stages, and the high-end liquor contributes to the revenue bright spot with high growth rate. 1) from the point of view of business, 23H1 liquor / pork / other operating income is 45.53 million yuan, which is-7.3% / 16.6% compared with the same period last year. 2) from a graded point of view, the operating income of 23H1 high / medium / low-grade wine is 5.70, 6.88 and 3.296 million yuan, compared with 59.8%, 6.0 and 13.8%, respectively. 3) from a regional point of view, the income of 23H1 Beijing / Beijing outside Beijing is RMB 4.134 billion, which is-5.8% and 4.2% compared with the same period last year.
Gross margin: 23H1's overall gross profit margin is 32.2%, with an increase of 1.2pcts. In terms of business, the gross profit margin of 23H1 spirit / pork business is 46.4% and 12.4%, while the gross profit margin of spirits is also increased by 5.5pcts, in which the gross profit margin of high, middle and low-grade spirits has increased over the same period last year, and the price of pork business has been inverted as a drag on profits; from a quarterly point of view, the overall gross profit margin of 23Q2 is 21.5%, year-on-year-6.7pcts.
Cost side: the 23Q2 sales / management / financial expense rate is 11.5%, 7.3%, 1.9%, respectively, and + 6.2/+1.5/-0.1pcts, respectively, compared with the same period last year. It is speculated that the continuous increase of investment in gold standard aging and other medium and high-end wines leads to an increase in sales fee rate. With the continuous volume of gold standard, the appearance of scale effect, and the improvement of management efficiency, the company's sales and management rates are expected to be continuously optimized.
Profit side: dragged down by losses in the pork and real estate business, 23H1 achieved a net profit of-81 million yuan,-302.5% year-on-year, and a net interest rate of-1.3%, compared with 0.6% in the same period last year. On a quarterly basis, 23Q2 achieved a net profit of-409 million yuan, + 535.8% compared with the same period last year, and the net interest rate was-19.3%, compared with-2.5% in the same period last year.
23Q2 spirit traditional off-season, superimposed macroeconomic and household consumption is weak, liquor business revenue stage pressure, at the same time due to pig price bottom shock, real estate market downturn and real estate transfer short-term increase in taxes and fees, pork and real estate business losses drag on profitability. We believe that the company is determined to focus on the liquor industry, and in terms of real estate, the current Shunxin Jiayu 100% equity project is officially disclosed at the Beijing property Exchange at a base price of 3.098 billion yuan, and substantial progress has been made in the divestiture of the real estate business in the first half of the year. In terms of liquor, the mobile sales of Bai Niu II Terminal returned to a good and stable revenue base, the gold standard aging of the upgraded products was smooth, and the 23H1 sales growth rate of 86.6% showed a high growth trend compared with the same period last year. The certainty of achieving the target of 5 million cases of sales in 2023 is enhanced, which is expected to boost the overall profitability of the liquor business in the medium to long term.
Investment advice: 23H1 pork and real estate business short-term drag on profitability, with the acceleration of real estate business, liquor season and gold standard-led structural upgrading, profit margins are expected to continue to release. We estimate that the company will achieve revenue of 131.85 million yuan in 23-25 year-on-year, an increase of 12.9%, 15.8%, 15.1%, respectively, and a net profit of 5.85%, 8.29%, 29.0%, 29.0%, respectively, corresponding to a PE of 32x23x18X, with a "recommended" rating.
Risk tips: the continuous impact of the new GB policy; the promotion of new products is not as expected; the divestiture progress of the real estate business is not as expected; the impact of fluctuations in pig prices.