The company released its mid-2023 report. The company's 2023H1 realized revenue of 10.834 billion yuan, an increase of 34.11% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 79 million yuan, an increase of 174.77% over the same period last year. Of this total, Q2 achieved an operating income of 5.672 billion yuan, an increase of 27.11% over the same period last year, and a net profit of-38 million yuan, down 81.74% from the same period last year. The improvement of 2023H1 profitability is mainly due to the substantial increase in the prices of chicken and duck seedlings in the bird plate compared with the same period last year, and the increase in profits in the poultry sector.
The price of poultry seedlings has risen, and the H1 species bird plate has grown rapidly. There is a certain periodicity in the upstream and downstream of the poultry breeding industry chain, the epidemic situation is repeated in 2022, the consumer demand decreases, and the industry as a whole is in the doldrums. In terms of revenue segment, the revenue from slaughtering / feed / breeding / ripening is RMB 79.09, 14.73, 8.62 / 239 million respectively, with year-on-year changes of 28.23%, 8.85%, 283.19% and 9.46% respectively. In addition to the poultry plate affected by supply and demand, the price of poultry seedlings is higher, showing a significant improvement, other sectors are less than expected by the recovery of the consumer market, the industry is relatively depressed. On the profit side, the company achieved an operating profit of 114 million yuan, an increase of 203.03% over the same period last year; gross profit and net profit were 3.57% and 1.02% respectively, increasing 2.05pct/2.41pct respectively over the same period last year.
The prosperity of the poultry industry has been improving for a long time, and the integrated layout of the industrial chain. The poultry industry has ushered in a rising cycle, the health demands of high-protein and low-fat poultry meat and changes in consumption habits have brought about a long-term improvement in the industry's demand; the development of the modern catering service industry represented by chain restaurants will also lead to the growth of poultry consumption with a higher degree of standardization, lower costs and stronger processing attributes. In addition, as a leading poultry enterprise, the integrated layout of the industrial chain can reduce transaction costs and stabilize periodic fluctuations in different links. We expect the company's profitability to continue to show in the future.
[investment advice]
With the recovery of consumption, poultry return to the rising cycle, the company as a large poultry food leading enterprise, the integrated layout of the industrial chain, the scale advantage is obvious. We maintain our profit forecast for 2023-2025, and estimate that the operating income for 2023-2025 will be 217.0%, 23.46%, 25.25 billion yuan, an increase of 16.0%, 8.1%, 7.7% over the same period last year, and the homing net profit will be 3.0, 49.5, 5.6 million yuan, an increase of 489.3%, 59.5% and 15.8% over the same period last year. The corresponding EPS is 0.68 shock 1.08 yuan per share, and the corresponding PE is 23-14-12 times, maintaining the "overweight" rating.
[risk Tip]
Risk of price fluctuation of poultry
Risk of poultry disease
Food safety risk
The risk of rising prices of raw materials.