Revenue reached a quarterly high, and hospital profitability continued to rise, maintaining a “buy” rating. The company released its 2023 semi-annual report: 2023H1 achieved operating income of 2,210 million yuan (+106.91%), net profit loss of 222 million yuan (+62.69%), net profit loss of 225 million yuan (+55.95%), net operating cash flow of 410 million yuan (+302.55%); 2023Q2 achieved revenue of 1,151 million yuan, up 50.78% year on year, 2023Q1 There was an increase of 8.65%, net profit loss of 148 million yuan, a year-on-year reduction of losses (2022Q2 was -167 million yuan), net operating cash flow of 188 million yuan (2022Q2 was -164 million yuan), net operating cash flow was 188 million yuan (was 104 million yuan). 2022Q2 The company was affected by the suspension of medical treatment and the epidemic in 2022, but the overall performance was stable under a positive response. Since 2023, the adverse factors affecting the company's medical business development have been gradually eliminated, and new hospitals have been put into operation and new business development. 2023Q1 revenue has exceeded expectations and profit losses have narrowed markedly. Although 2023Q2 is in the off-season, it still achieved high revenue growth. The profit margin declined slightly from month to month due to depreciation of more new hospitals in Q2, but overall operating profit is still steady, showing a steady upward trend. We maintain our profit forecast for 2023-2025. Net profit for 2023-2025 was 0.22/297/486 million yuan, EPS was 0.01/0.13/0.22 yuan respectively, and the current stock price corresponding to P/S is 4.1/2.9/2.4 times, respectively. With the hospital platform, the company extends the industrial chain, and the utilization rate of hospital beds in its hospitals has a lot of room to increase, and maintains a “buy” rating.
Follow-up outlook: The net interest rate of Gaoxin Hospital continues to rise. Central Hospital has reached an inflection point in the monthly profit and loss balance. Judging from the split hospitals, the semi-annual revenue of Gaoxin Hospital reached a record high, the annualized single-bed output is close to the high level of nearly 1 million before Phase II was not opened. The profit has also increased month-on-month. The net interest rate of 2023H1 has reached a stage of stable profit and continuous improvement in profitability; it is estimated that the revenue of the Central Hospital has increased by 45.44%, mainly because there are many critically ill patients related to the epidemic in January, and the cost per capita has risen rapidly since the opening of the hospital. Run On the other hand, 2023H1 added depreciation for the North Hospital. The depreciation amount is reflected in Sacred Heart Medical Management's profit, which is estimated to be 0.5-100 million. The total value of its original loss of 150 million yuan is still significantly lower than the loss amounts of 202H2 and 2022H1, further approaching the inflection point of the monthly profit and loss balance. Shangluo Hospital completed industrial and commercial changes on August 22, 2023. After excluding mergers, loss assets were reduced and the company's asset structure was improved.
Risk warning: Health insurance fee controls are becoming stricter, and hospitalizations are not climbing as fast as expected.