Benefit 1) repair of tea, catering and other scenes; 2) the company continues to cultivate and open up tea, coffee and baking customers; 3) the cost of raw materials such as large packets of powder has dropped, the fundamentals of 2023H1 have improved significantly, and the revenue / return net profit is from + 18% to 450 million / 47 million yuan compared with the same period last year. The company is actively developing tea and coffee customers, if the follow-up major customer orders are landed, the company's performance growth can be expected.
2023H1's income / homing net profit is from 107% to 450 million / 47 million yuan compared with the same period last year, and the performance is significantly improved compared with the same period last year. 2023H1, the company realized operating income of 450 million yuan (year-on-year + 18.3%), net profit of 47 million yuan (+ 107.1%), and non-return net profit of 41 million yuan (+ 125.3%). Among them, 2023Q2, the company's revenue is 230 million yuan (year-on-year + 25.7%), the return net profit is 28 million yuan (year-on-year + 154.2%), and the non-return net profit is 25 million yuan (year-on-year + 182.4%).
Scenario repair: under the customer expansion, the company's revenue returned to double-digit growth in the first half of the year, and Q2 revenue accelerated.
1) Restoration of catering, tea and other scenes; 2) the company ploughs stock customers such as Yuanqi Forest, fragrance Piao Piao and Ancient Tea, while actively opening up new customers such as Cezanne and Kangpaike. 3) under the promotion of room temperature thin cream, refrigerated thin cream, original Masuri la cheese and other factors, 2023H1's business income returned to good growth, with an increase of 18.3%, of which Q2 revenue of 2-year CAGR was 9.6% faster than that of Q1 (2-year CAGR 4.5%), indicating the development trend of the company's new products, new customers and new channels. In terms of products, 2023H1's concentrated dairy products / dairy trade / other business income increased by 20.9%, 10.4% and 36.5% to 330 million / 120 million / 7 million yuan respectively, while the orders of tea and baking customers of concentrated dairy products increased rapidly. at present, the company has formed four category matrices with condensed milk as the main and cream, cheese and plant-based as the second growth curve. From a sub-channel point of view, 2023H1's direct sales / distribution revenue increased by 91.5% 4.2% to 40 million / 250 million yuan respectively, and the direct channel benefited from the increase in stock customer orders such as tea, baking and food processing enterprises, as well as the effective development of new customers.
The gross profit margin has improved, the rate has been optimized, and the company's profitability has recovered well. Although the price of white granulated sugar in 2023H1 has risen, the price of large packets of powder, fresh milk and raw cheese has dropped, and the cost side of the company has improved. In the first half of the year, the company's gross profit margin was + 2.7Pcts to 23.4% compared with the same period last year, in which the gross profit margin of concentrated dairy products / dairy trade / other businesses was + 4.5/-3.9/+2.0Pcts respectively. The 2023H1 annual company sales rate is year-on-year-1.7Pcts, which mainly benefits from the company's reduction in marketing expenses for C-end products such as super barcode fees this year, while management + R & D rates are flat year-on-year and financial rates are year-on-year-0.2Pct/ year-on-year-0.4Pct, respectively. In the end, the company's parent net interest rate / deduction of non-parent net interest rate year-on-year + 4.5Pcts/+4.3Pcts to 10.5% net interest rate 9.1%, the profit side recovers better. As the company continues to develop old customers and actively expand tea, coffee, baking and other new customers, while condensed milk, cream, coconut and other product matrix continues to enrich, the price of stacked powder continues to decline, optimistic about the company's continued growth in the second half of the year.
Risk factors: food safety problems; intensified market competition; the company's new products & new market development is not as expected; raw material price fluctuation risk.
Investment suggestion: taking into account the acceleration of Q2 revenue growth and the better-than-expected improvement of H1 profitability, the company's 2023 EPS 2024 EPS forecast for 25 years is 1.07 yuan (the original forecast is 0.64 pound 0.78 pound).
With reference to the comparable company's 2023 PE level (Hai Rong Technology 30x, Mioco Landuo 35x, based on Wind consensus expectations), and considering the company's good growth in the next few years and its dominant position in the condensed milk industry, the company is given 36 times PE in 2022, corresponding to a target price of 26 yuan, maintaining the "overweight" rating.