China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055.HK): 1H23 net profit increased by 109%, and businesses such as tobacco leaf imports and cigarette exports increased rapidly

中金公司 · Aug 28, 2023 13:12

1H23 业绩符合我们预期

公司公布1H23 业绩，收入实现77.4 亿港元，同增100.1%，归母净利4.6亿港元，同增108.7%，业绩符合我们预期。境外免税客流修复、延迟运装烟叶到港、巴西业务整合顺利、HNB 海外需求高景气等共同带动上半年业绩快速增长。

发展趋势

1、烟叶进口、卷烟出口、HNB 出口等业务快速增长。1H23 分业务看：

1）烟叶进口：收入同增147%，进口量同增84%，受疫情影响延迟装运的烟叶于上半年陆续到港，且结构优化带动均价同增35%，共同拉动收入快增；2）卷烟出口：收入同增1,267%，销量同增766%，海外免税渠道等客流明显恢复；3）新型烟草出口：收入同增27%，销量同增45%，中东、东欧等国际市场需求维持高景气，出口HNB 产品力持续提升；4）烟叶出口：收入同降26%，销量同降21%，主因出口地区卷烟税上调、控烟政策趋严等抑制需求；5）巴西业务：收入同增27%，销量同增25%，公司巴西业务整合顺利，境外销售成品片烟涨价拉动收入与盈利能力快速增长。

2、巴西业务、新型烟草毛利率向好，整体盈利能力平稳运行。上半年公司毛利率实现9.6%，同降1.7ppt，分业务看，烟叶进口/卷烟出口/新型烟草出口/烟叶出口/巴西业务毛利率分别同比-4.5/-1.8/+1.6/+0.3/+5.7ppt；费用端看，管理/财务费用分别同比-0.6/+0.2ppt；综合影响下，归母净利率实现5.9%，同增0.2ppt。

3、卷烟出口、新型烟草等业务有望持续快速成长，“外延+内生”双轮协同发展可期。我们预计，1）内生方面：公司有望加大新型烟草业务的技术研发、品牌培育、渠道建设，持续提升海外市场竞争力与市占率；公司有望提升卷烟出口自营业务规模、拓展空白渠道，带动收入与盈利能力持续提升；公司亦有望积极顺应国际烟叶价格上涨趋势，调整产品定价与结构，带动烟叶出口业务持续成长；2）外延方面：公司与中烟巴西的并购整合顺利、协同效应与经营效率逐步向好，未来仍有望充分发挥其中烟旗下境外资本运作平台价值，积极探寻匹配集团战略目标的优质标的。

盈利预测与估值

考虑烟叶到港及卷烟出口带动业绩快速修复，上调2023 年归母净利预测167%至9.3 亿港元，引入2024 年归母净利预测10 亿港元，当前股价对应2023/24 年9/9 倍P/E。维持中性评级，考虑估值切换下调目标价15%至15港元，对应2024 年12 倍P/E，较当前有21%上行空间。

风险

贸易摩擦、汇率变化风险；烟草消费下行风险；海外疫情反复。

1H23's performance met our expectations

The company announced 1H23 results, with revenue of HK$7.74 billion, an increase of 100.1%, and net profit attributable to parent of HK$460 million, an increase of 108.7%. The performance was in line with our expectations. The restoration of overseas duty-free passenger flows, delays in shipping tobacco leaves to Hong Kong, smooth integration of Brazilian business, and high overseas demand for HNB all contributed to rapid growth in performance in the first half of the year.

Development trends

1. Businesses such as tobacco leaf import, cigarette export, and HNB export are growing rapidly. Look at 1H23 by business:

1) Tobacco leaf imports: Revenue increased by 147%, import volume increased by 84%. Tobacco leaves that were delayed due to the epidemic arrived in Hong Kong one after another in the first half of the year, and structural optimization led to an average price increase of 35%, which together led to a rapid increase in revenue; 2) Cigarette exports: revenue increased 1,267%, sales volume increased 766%, overseas duty-free channels and other passenger flow clearly recovered; 3) New types of tobacco exports: revenue increased 27%, sales volume increased 45%, demand in international markets such as the Middle East and Eastern Europe remained high, and the export capacity of HNB products continued to increase 4) Leaf exports: revenue fell 26%, sales volume fell 21% Mainly due to higher cigarette taxes and stricter tobacco control policies in export regions, etc., to curb demand; 5) Brazilian business: revenue increased 27%, sales volume increased 25%, the company's Brazilian business integration was smooth, and the price increase for finished cigarettes sold overseas led to rapid growth in revenue and profitability.

2. The gross margin of the Brazilian business and new types of tobacco is improving, and the overall profitability is running smoothly. In the first half of the year, the company's gross margin was 9.6%, down 1.7 ppt. By business, the gross margin of tobacco imports/cigarette exports/new tobacco exports/tobacco leaf exports/Brazil business was -4.5/-1.8/+1.6/+0.3/+5.7ppt respectively; on the cost side, management/financial expenses were -0.6/+0.2ppt respectively; under comprehensive influence, the net profit margin for return was 5.9%, an increase of 0.2 ppt.

3. Businesses such as cigarette exports and new types of tobacco are expected to continue to grow rapidly, and the “epitaxial plus endogenous” two-round collaborative development can be expected. We anticipate that 1) Endogenous aspects: the company is expected to increase technology research and development, brand cultivation, and channel construction of the new tobacco business, and continue to enhance overseas market competitiveness and market share; the company is expected to increase the scale of its cigarette export business, expand empty channels, and drive continuous growth in revenue and profitability; the company is also expected to actively adapt to the rising trend of international tobacco prices, adjust product pricing and structure, and drive the continuous growth of tobacco export business; 2) Outreach aspect: M&A integration, synergy and efficiency between the company and China Tobacco Brazil are expected to gradually improve in the future. Overseas subsidiaries The value of the capital operation platform is to actively explore high-quality targets that match the Group's strategic goals.

Profit forecasting and valuation

Considering the arrival of tobacco leaves to Hong Kong and cigarette exports to drive a rapid recovery in performance, the 2023 return net profit forecast was raised by 167% to HK$930 million, and the 2024 net profit forecast of HK$1 billion was introduced. The current stock price corresponds to 9/9 times P/E for 2023/24. Maintaining a neutral rating, consider switching the valuation and lowering the target price by 15% to HK$15, corresponding to 12 times P/E in 2024. There is room for 21% increase from the current level.

risks

Trade friction, risk of exchange rate changes; risk of declining tobacco consumption; repeated overseas epidemics.

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中烟香港(06055.HK)：1H23净利同增109% 烟叶进口、卷烟出口等业务快增

China Tobacco Hong Kong (06055.HK): 1H23 net profit increased by 109%, and businesses such as tobacco leaf imports and cigarette exports increased rapidly

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