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英联股份(002846):金属包装主业向好 核心技术+产能推进进入复合集流体

Yinglian Co., Ltd. (002846): The main metal packaging business is improving core technology+production capacity and advancing into composite fluid collectors

華安證券 ·  Aug 27, 2023 00:00

Deeply involved in the FMCG metal packaging industry for more than ten years. The space is vast and centralized upgrading, and the main business continues to improve

The core products are metal easy-pull lids, easy-tear covers, etc. During the pandemic, the impact subsided along with the impact, and industry concentration increased during competition. At the same time, the company developed new products and overseas markets. At the same time, the company developed new products and overseas markets. Performance has improved dramatically since '23, and the market space and pattern have driven the main business to continue improving.

Composite fluid collection performance is excellent, safe, low in cost, vast space. The industry is progressing rapidly, and the composite aluminum foil technology process is gradually maturing and mass production has brought safety improvement; composite copper foil estimates can increase battery energy density by about 7%, and the cost of single flat raw materials is only 34% of traditional copper foil. Currently, mainstream processes have not been established, capacity utilization rate and yield are expected to continue to increase, and the cost of finished products is expected to drop to 70% of traditional copper foil. Under optimistic expectations, market demand for composite copper foil/aluminum foil is expected to exceed 291/16.9 billion yuan in 25 years. At present, composite copper foil is on the eve of mass production: leading upstream equipment manufacturers have obvious advantages, and domestic substitution of base films has begun; midstream manufacturing, traditional electrolytic copper foil factories and transition plants are participating, steadily expanding production capacity and promoting R&D and sample delivery verification; downstream battery manufacturers are actively deploying, and industrialization is progressing well.

The company spent more than 3 billion dollars to lay out the composite fluid collector industry, creating the second growth pole 1) In February 2023, the company signed an investment agreement with the Jiangsu Gaoyou Economic Development Zone, invested 3,089 billion yuan in composite copper foil and composite aluminum foil projects in Gaoyou, invested about 2.3 billion yuan in equipment, and built 100 composite copper foil production lines for NEV power lithium batteries and 10 aluminum foil production lines.

2) It is planned to invest in the construction of 10 composite copper foil and 1 composite aluminum foil production line in 2023: Currently, there are 3 composite copper foil production lines. Of these, 1 production line is officially in production and operation, and 2 other water plating line equipment are being tested on site, or will be put into production one after another.

3) The R&D team is strong. The core leader of the team, Dr. Wu Junwei, has been deeply involved in the field of magnetron sputtering for many years and Mr. Lin Jinyi has more than 30 years of experience in the field of flexible board electroplating.

Investment suggestions: The company's net profit for 23/24/25 is estimated to be 0.32/287/431 million yuan, respectively, corresponding to the current market value PE of 139/16/10 times, respectively. For the first time, coverage is given a “buy” rating.

Risk warning: Policy risks; development of new energy vehicles and energy storage falls short of expectations; disruptive breakthroughs in related technologies; raw material prices fluctuate; competition in the industry is intense, product price drops exceed expectations; capacity expansion falls short of expectations, and product development falls short of expectations.

The translation is provided by third-party software.


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