Core viewpoints
In the first half of 2023, the company achieved revenue of 1.28 billion yuan, + 4% compared with the same period last year, and the net profit returned to the mother was 35 million yuan,-56% compared with the same period last year, of which 2023Q2 realized revenue of 790 million yuan, month-on-month ratio of + 60%, and net profit of 40 million yuan on a regular basis. The company's electric motorcycle business has benefited from the strong and rapid growth of demand in Southeast Asia, accounting for 50% of the lithium electricity sector of two-wheelers, and the revenue of the energy storage business has increased 2.5 times year-on-year driven by the South African market. Q2 company profitability significantly repaired, gross margin month-on-month + 2.9pct, through the bottom moment.
Event
The company's 2023H1 realized revenue of 1.28 billion yuan, year-on-year + 4%, net profit of 35 million yuan, year-on-year-56%, deduction of non-52 million yuan, year-on-year-33%; gross profit margin 16.3%, year-on-year-1pct.
Among them, 2023Q2 achieved revenue of 790 million yuan, year-on-year + 15%, month-on-month + 60%; return to the mother net profit of 40 million yuan, year-on-year-24%, month-on-month; deduction of non-post-55 million yuan, year-on-year + 3%, month-on-month; gross profit margin 17.4%, year-on-year-0.6pct, month-on-month + 2.9pct.
Brief comment
Light vehicle lithium battery business: electric motorcycles benefit from the rapid growth of the Southeast Asian market and the weak European demand for electric bikes is under pressure briefly.
2023H1's two-wheeler business income is 472 million yuan,-35% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to overseas inflation, geopolitics, product destocking and other factors. Structurally, it is estimated that the income of electric motorcycle / electric treadmill is 2.3-240 million yuan each. Electric motorcycle benefits from the strong and rapid growth of market demand in Southeast Asia and India, and its share in the two-wheeler business continues to increase. Electric bikes are under year-on-year pressure due to weak demand in Europe and the impact of going to the warehouse.
Energy storage battery business: the demand for household savings in South Africa is strong, and the year-on-year growth rate of income is remarkable.
2023H1 energy storage business income of 440 million yuan, + 255% year-on-year, shipping in the form of household storage, superimposed a small amount of industrial and commercial energy storage. The growth rate of energy storage income in the first half of the year is considerable, mainly due to strong demand in the South African household storage market.
Lithium ion battery business: 2023H1 cell business income of 27 million yuan,-46% compared with the same period last year, mainly due to: 1) relatively weak downstream demand; 2) low inventory under the channel of raw material price reduction; 3) adjustment of self-supply and take-out ratio. At present, the first phase of the company's water base large cylindrical cell 1.5GWh has been solid in the first half of the year, with a high proportion of power self-supply.
Consumer battery business: 2023H1's consumer battery revenue is 294 million yuan, + 17% compared with the same period last year. There are many downstream application scenarios, and the revenue scale maintains steady growth.
Profitability: the profit of the company has been significantly repaired since 23Q2, with a gross profit margin of 17.4%, a month-on-month ratio of + 2.9pct, a turnround in net profit from the previous year, and a bottom moment driven by energy storage and electric motorcycle business. it is expected that the profitability will continue to be optimized with the increase in the self-supply ratio of the battery.
It is estimated that the 23-and 24-year net profit of the company will be 1.50 and 250 million yuan, corresponding to 13.8 times of PE 23.5.
Risk analysis.
1) the production and sales of downstream electric bikes are not as expected: the sales side may continue to be affected by weak European demand and destocking, and the output side may be less than expected by the sharp fluctuations in the prices of upstream raw materials, thus affecting the company's related business shipments and profitability.
2) the competition in the downstream energy storage market intensifies: the company's energy storage business achieved high growth in the first half of 2023, but with the intensification of competition in the energy storage market, the price and share are at risk of decline, thus affecting the company's shipments and profitability.
3) the promotion of the company's key projects is not as expected: as a participant in the new energy track, the promotion of key projects is not only the key to support revenue and profits, but also a reflection of the company's growth, which will affect the current and long-term performance.