2023 年以来流量持续恢复，各项营收同比增长。2023 年“乙类乙管”以来航空需求持续恢复，2023H1 公司旅客吞吐量同比增长84%至1205 万人次，约为2019 年96%，流量增长拉动公司各项收入增长：（1）2023H1 航空业务营收为4.9 亿元，同比增长132%；其中旅客服务费营收2.3 亿元，同比增长133%，飞机起降费为1 亿元，同比增长110%；（2）2023H1 非航业务营收为5.7 亿元，同比增长39%，其中特许经营权收入为3.3 亿元，同比增长41%，主要源于随着流量恢复，离岛免税店线下销售额恢复增长。performance
On August 25, 2023, Meilan Airport released the 2023 semi-annual report. 2023H1 achieved operating income of 1.07 billion yuan, an increase of 67% year-on-year; realized net profit of 50 million yuan, a year-on-year decrease of 0.4 billion yuan.
profiling
Traffic has continued to recover since 2023, and all revenue has increased year over year. Since “Class B Management” in 2023, aviation demand has continued to recover. 2023H1's passenger throughput increased 84% year on year to 1.05 million passengers, about 96% in 2019. Traffic growth has driven the company's revenue growth: (1) 2023H1 aviation business revenue was 490 million yuan, up 132% year on year; of these, passenger service fee revenue was 230 million yuan, up 133% year on year, and aircraft take-off and landing expenses were 100 million yuan, up 110% year on year; (2) 2023H1's non-aviation business revenue was 570 million yuan, up 39% year on year Of these, franchise revenue was 330 million yuan, an increase of 41% over the previous year, mainly due to the resumption of growth in offline sales of outlying islands duty-free shops as traffic resumed.
Operating costs have risen sharply, and performance has been pressured for a short time. The operating cost of 2023H1 was 970 million yuan, an increase of 87% over the previous year, mainly due to the company leasing assets related to Meilan Airport Phase I and Phase II held by the parent company since 2023, which led to an increase in related costs. Among them: (1) depreciation expenses increased by 240 million yuan, mainly due to depreciation of additional usage rights assets; (2) an increase in labor costs of 160 million yuan, mainly due to an increase in employment demand; (3) an increase of 50 million yuan in utility costs, cleaning and environmental maintenance costs and maintenance costs. Costs increased rapidly, 2023H1's gross margin fell by 8 pct to 9%, net loss increased, and performance was under pressure for a short time. Considering that after the completion of the second phase of the company's expansion project, the company has sufficient production capacity. It is expected that the revenue side will resume growth in the next few years, while the cost side is relatively stable, and the company's profitability will continue to improve.
Peak hour capacity standards have been raised, and traffic growth can be expected. From June 25, 2023, the peak hourly capacity standard for Meilan Airport was adjusted from 30 flights/hour to 40 flights/hour, providing a solid foundation for future development. In addition, the Provincial Department of Transportation issued the “Action Plan for Building a Regional Gateway Hub for Haikou Meilan International Airport (2023-2025)”, which proposes that by the end of 2025, Meilan Airport will achieve a passenger throughput of 30 million passengers and airport duty-free shop sales of 4.5 billion yuan, and also proposed the construction of a T3 terminal according to a world-class commercial complex plan. Long-term traffic growth is expected after it is put into operation, which will also drive the company's aviation and non-aviation revenue to continue to grow.
Profit Forecasts and Ratings
Based on the recent recovery situation, the company's net profit forecast for 2023-2025 was lowered to 60 million yuan, 4.2 billion yuan, and 760 million yuan (original 6.3 billion yuan/960 million yuan/1.24 billion yuan). Maintain a “buy” rating.
Risk warning
The risk of demand recovery falling short of expectations, the risk of duty-free business operations, the risk of expansion exceeding expectations, and the risk of fee price control.
