Core viewpoints
23H1 achieved revenue of 1.121 billion yuan (+ 75.18% compared with the same period last year) and net profit of-39.8955 million yuan (+ 86.58% compared with the same period last year). The substantial increase in revenue was mainly due to the increase in the price of commercial chicken seedlings and the increase in sales of cooked chicken condiments. 23H1 Company sold 140 million chicken seedlings (year-on-year + 4.42%), realized revenue of 487 million yuan (year-on-year + 117.26%), product sales unit price of 3.48 yuan per feather, complete cost of each feather of about 3 yuan, and contributed profit of 60 million yuan. Looking forward to the second half of the year, the supply and demand of chicken seedlings will gradually improve, the prosperity of seedling prices is expected to pick up, and the performance of the company may have a better performance. 23H1 sells 35900 tons of chicken products (+ 18.14% compared with the same period last year) and achieves a revenue of 521 million yuan (+ 65.55% compared with the same period last year). At the initial stage of the development of the company's e-commerce business, the related expenses are relatively large, and the sector has a periodic loss. Looking forward to the future, with the continuous improvement of the company's product sales, plate income is expected to grow; capacity utilization is gradually improved and brand effect is gradually emerging, plate performance is expected to gradually improve.
Event
The company disclosed that 2023H1's revenue was 1.121 billion yuan, up 75.18% from the same period last year, and its net profit was-39.8955 million yuan, up 86.58% from the same period last year.
Brief comment
1, the seedling price rises + the chicken sales increase, the company revenue increases.
23H1 achieved revenue of 1.121 billion yuan (year-on-year + 75.18%) and net profit of-39.8955 million yuan (year-on-year + 86.58%). The substantial increase in revenue was mainly due to the increase in the price of commercial chicken seedlings and the increase in sales of cooked chicken condiments; 23Q2 achieved revenue of 543 million yuan (year-on-year + 38.30%, month-on-month-5.91%) and net profit-96.7521 million yuan (year-on-year + 15.48%, month-on-month-270.17%). 23H1 has a gross sales margin of 15.48% (year-on-year + 40.95pcts) and a net sales margin of-4.02% (year-on-year + 43.21pcts).
In terms of expenses: the sales / management / R & D / financial expenses of 2023H1 Company are 9148.20, 6338.65, 917.24, and 727.84 million yuan, respectively, and the year-on-year changes are + 312.99%, 9.37%, 13.68%, 846.89%, respectively. The increase in sales expenses is mainly due to the increase in e-commerce sales promotion in the current period, and the increase in financial expenses is mainly due to the increase in interest on loans in the current period.
2. The profit of chicken seedling business is good, and the volume of food business is gradually increasing.
23H1 Company sold 140 million chicken seedlings (year-on-year + 4.42%), realized revenue of 487 million yuan (year-on-year + 117.26%), product sales unit price of 3.48 yuan per feather, complete cost of each feather of about 3 yuan, and contributed profit of 60 million yuan. Looking forward to the second half of the year, considering the reduction in the supply of chicken seedlings and the gradual improvement in demand, the prosperity of seedling prices is expected to pick up, and the performance of the company sector may be better.
23H1 Company sells 35900 tons of chicken products (+ 18.14% compared with the same period last year), with a revenue of 521 million yuan (+ 65.55% compared with the same period last year). The unit price of the products is about 14501 yuan / ton, and the unit operating cost is about 13828 yuan / ton. at present, the company's e-commerce business department has a large investment in related expenses and a phased loss in the sector.
Looking forward to the future, with the continuous improvement of the company's product sales, plate income is expected to grow; capacity utilization is gradually improved and brand effect is gradually emerging, plate performance is expected to gradually improve.
3. Profit forecast: in terms of chicken seedling business, the price of chicken seedlings in May-August this year is relatively low or the annual seedling prices are slightly lower than the industry expectations; in view of the gradual recovery of overseas introduction and the promotion of domestic breeder chickens, we correspondingly lower our expectations for chicken seedling prices next year and the year after next. Food business: the company's e-commerce development department in the early stage, it is expected that the related costs are relatively large. Considering that the price of chicken seedlings next year may be higher than that of this year, the profitability of the superimposed company's food sector will improve, and the company's performance may grow faster. Taking into account, we adjust the company's revenue and performance forecast, it is expected that the company's revenue in 2023-2025 is expected to achieve 25.18,97416,315 million yuan (the previous value is 0.708 pounds 30.153.326 billion yuan), the net profit of the homing mother is 0.36 million pounds (503 million dollars), and the EPS is 0.10 pounds 0.470.59 yuan respectively. Recently, seedling prices have rebounded, and the company's chicken business has taken a marginal turn for the better; the food business continues to build a second growth curve and maintain the "overweight" rating.
Risk analysis.
The risk of biosafety. The risk of livestock and poultry disease that the company needs to prevent and control at present and in the future is mainly divided into two categories: one is the risk of disease in the process of livestock and poultry breeding, and the other is the risk of large-scale epidemic outbreak in livestock and poultry breeding industry. In the event of an outbreak of epidemics such as bird flu, the company's failure to deal with it in a timely manner may greatly affect its business.
The risk of changes in raw material prices. In the production cost of the company's livestock and poultry products, feed accounts for a certain proportion, feed is mainly composed of corn, soybean meal, oil and various nutritional additives, it is difficult to replace with other raw materials. If the supply of corn, soybean meal and other major raw materials in the market is insufficient or the price increases are large, it may have an impact on the company's future business performance.
Other risks: the risk of rising labor costs, the risk of environmental protection policy adjustment, the risk of food safety.