Event
The company released its semi-annual report of 2023, with revenue of 1.289 billion yuan in the first half of the year, an increase of 5.24% over the same period last year, and a net profit of 298 million yuan (deducting 280 million yuan), an increase of 69.08% over the same period last year (up 73.04%). Among them, the net profit in the second quarter was 120 million yuan (an increase of 152.41% over the same period last year).
The profitability is greatly improved, and the cost control ability is good.
In the first half of the year, the company's gross profit margin was 46.67% (year-on-year + 5.26pct), including food gross profit margin 75.54% (year-on-year + 1.25pct), natural gas gross profit margin 6.96% (year-on-year + 7.49pct), wind power gross profit margin of 72% (year-on-year + 5.71%), profitability greatly improved; net profit margin 22.76% (year-on-year + 8.99pct), ROE (diluted) 4.46% (year-on-year + 0.53pct) The expense rate during the period is 21.66% (year-on-year-2.93pct), of which the management expense rate is 10.55% (year-on-1.54pct), the financial expense rate is 2.12% (year-on-year-1.60pct), and the cost control ability is good; the operating net cash flow is 420 million yuan (year-on-year + 15.81%); by the end of the first half of the year, the company's asset-liability ratio was 44.54% (year-on-year + 1.21pct).
Wind power profits increased significantly, with more than 1.1 million kilowatts of new installed space during the year, with the full capacity operation of Tongquan Wind Farm and the successive grid-connected power generation of Yongning Wind Farm, as well as the positive impact of incoming wind over the same period last year, the company's new energy sector power generation and electricity sales increased significantly over the same period last year, promoting the high growth of home net profit. In the first half of the year, the revenue of the wind power business was 393 million yuan (year-on-year + 55.87%) and the gross profit margin was 72% (year-on-year + 5.71pct). At present, the company has put into production a total of 876800 kilowatts of wind power, an increase of 68.6% over the end of 2022. In the first half of the year, the total utilization hours of the company's wind farm was 1731 hours (year-on-year + 190hours), 494hours higher than the national average of 1237 hours.
The company will continue to accelerate the construction of incremental new energy projects. In the orderly progress of the remaining units of the Yongning project and the first phase of Admiralty, the company strives to be fully connected to the grid this year, and the total installed capacity of new energy will exceed 2 million kilowatts by the end of 2023, with an additional installed space of more than 1.1 million kilowatts.
The new energy target for the 14th five-year Plan is 5.13 million kilowatts, with a compound growth rate of more than 100% for three years. According to the company's plan, we will focus on speeding up the transformation of clean energy during the 14th five-year Plan period. We plan to install wind power of 2.59 million kilowatts and photovoltaic capacity of 2.54 million kilowatts by the end of the 14th five-year Plan. The cumulative installed capacity of new energy has reached 5.13 million kilowatts, with a compound growth rate of 114% from 2023 to 2025. Neng Investment Group, the controlling shareholder of the company, is the main force in Yunnan Province to build a world-class "green energy brand". It has a comparative advantage in the acquisition of new energy follow-up resources, and can fully support the company to expand, optimize and strengthen its new energy business. Tongquan Wind Farm, Jinzhong Wind Farm, Yongning Wind Farm and Jianshuitangliangzi Wind Farm in Dayao County have been handed over to the company for implementation. It is beneficial for the company to become bigger and stronger quickly and become the main business of excellent and new energy.
Valuation analysis and rating description
It is estimated that the company's net profit from 2023 to 2025 will be 534 million yuan, 770 million yuan and 972 million yuan respectively, corresponding to 19.3,13.4,10.6 times of PE, maintaining the "recommended" rating.
Risk hint
The price of feed-in electricity is reduced; the progress of new energy development is not as expected; the recovery of stock subsidies is not as expected; the risk of a sharp rise in the upstream price of natural gas.